3 Thoughts … after the Aztecs’ 25-3 win over San Jose State

Three thoughts after San Diego State’s 25-3 Mountain West win over San Jose State on Saturday night at Snapdragon Stadium.

1. Scenarios

This could be so simple.

If SDSU (9-2, 5-1 MW) wins Friday afternoon at New Mexico (8-3, 5-2), then the Aztecs win the Mountain West regular-season title and host the Dec. 5 conference championship game.

Even with a loss, SDSU could still play for the championship (at New Mexico) if Boise State (7-4, 5-2) loses Friday at Utah State and UNLV (9-2, 5-2) loses Saturday at Nevada.

Complications come if the Aztecs lose and are tied for first place at 6-2 with New Mexico and UNLV.

Then the Lobos would host the title game (because they would have beaten both SDSU and UNLV this season) and computer rating average would be used to determine whether SDSU or UNLV faces them. Head-to-head doesn’t apply to SDSU-UNLV because they didn’t play each other this season.

Computers also determine things if SDSU, Boise State and New Mexico are tied for first because they all were 1-1 against each other.

Finally, if all four teams are tied for first at 6-2, then it goes to the computers because not all have played each other.

Now, about those computers.

The highest-ranked teams from selected predictive and results-based computer metrics — the Mountain West uses Connelly SP+, ESPN’s SOR, KPI Rankings and SportSource — go to the championship.

So let’s total it up for each team, divide by four and see where things stand.

Not so fast.

It turns out the SportSource rating is proprietary (that’s a big word for you have to pay for it), so the actual totals will not be revealed until the Mountain West does so after this weekend’s games.

We can get some idea based on the average from the other three ratings.

Team (Connelly SP+ / ESPN’s SOR  / KPI Rankings) — average:

SDSU (43/43/41) — 42.33

UNLV (54/42/43) — 46.53

Boise State (55/56/45) — 52

New Mexico (70/47/54) — 57

In a three-team scenario with SDSU/New Mexico/UNLV, this suggests the Rebels would move ahead of SDSU to play at New Mexico for the title.

In a three-team scenario with SDSU/Boise State/New Mexico or a four-team scenario, there’s a possibility that the Aztecs remain one of the top two teams and reach the title game.

If all this is giving you a headache, may we suggest going for a walk and watching the games this weekend to see how this plays out.

2. Got them cornered

SDSU cornerback Chris Johnson appeared to have a hitch in his giddyup as he jogged across the field toward the north goal line during a pregame ceremony honoring the Aztecs’ seniors.

It seemed the lower-body injury that has made Johnson “questionable” on the weekly Availability Report was still bothering him.

Then the game started and Johnson was rejuvenated.

San Jose State coach Ken Niumatalolo knew to be wary, mentioning Johnson during midweek remarks as a player with NFL talent.

Indeed, the Spartans only targeted Johnson four times in the game. They were 1-for-4 for zero yards, which translates to a minus-25 pass efficiency rating.

Johnson’s biggest impact came during a three-series stretch in the second half.

When San Jose State faced a fourth-and-1 from the SDSU 34 in the third quarter, the Spartans, of course, went to wide receiver Danny Scutero, who leads the nation in receiving yards.

Johnson stopped him for no gain.

On the following series, San Jose State had a second-and-4 from its 32 when Johnson rushed in from the outside for his first career sack, dropping the quarterback for a 10-yard loss.

Johnson saved his best for the last quarter, collecting his team-high fourth interception of the season. He and San Jose State wide receiver Kyri Shoels both went up for a deep sideline ball that Johnson wrestled away from the receiver before he hit the ground.

“Actually, I was a little upset with myself on that play,” Johnson said. “I feel like I’m a perfectionist, and he, honestly, had me beat on the play. The quarterback underthrew it a little bit. We both went up for it and I ended up with the ball. I like to win that route from the get-go and not make it so close.”

Say this, that made it more impressive.

3. Drawing a crowd

The game drew an announced crowd (tickets distributed) of 22,595 fans with turnstile attendance (in-house) of 15,165.

The Aztecs averaged 26,189 announced for their six home games this season. The 17,406 turnstile average is 53.6% of capacity at 32,500-seat Snapdragon Stadium.

Snapdragon has been just more than 50% full the past three seasons after two-thirds of the seats (21,565) were occupied when the stadium opened in 2022.

SDSU went 7-6, 4-8 and 3-9 the past three years before posting a 9-2 record so far this year.

Winning was supposed to solve Snapdragon’s attendance woes. It was good cover before the Aztecs actually started winning.

But in-house attendance this season is only 647 higher than last year’s 16,759, when SDSU closed out the season with six straight losses.

Believing that winning would solve everything oversimplifies the issue with attendance.

People stay away because of high ticket prices (and parking and concessions). They stay away because of late kickoffs. They stay away because of opponents they don’t care to see. They stay away when it’s hotter than 72 degrees. They stay away when it’s cooler than 68 degrees. They stay away when there’s three drops of rain.

Student attendance was strong for the first three home games, filling the stands behind the north end zone. Then many chose to attend Halloween parties over the Wyoming game, staying dry over getting wet at the Boise State game and going home for Thanksgiving over the San Jose State game.

The Aztecs had a good promotion planned for the students, with free tuition (up to $10,000) for the spring semester for one lucky student offered in a raffle. The winner was going to be selected in the fourth quarter and had to be present to win.

The promotion was contingent on all 5,000 student tickets being claimed. Something south of 3,000 tickets were requested.

SDSU officials tried to engage the general public as well this season. There were flash sales, $15 a ticket for the Cal game and $40 for two tickets for the Boise State game. More than 5,000 tickets were scooped up against the Broncos. Another 3,000 were given to the military. Then it rained and nearly half the tickets distributed didn’t get used.

Two complimentary tickets were given to both football and basketball season-ticket holders to give to family or friends.

It was another solid idea that produced limited results. There is one problem with free tickets — people don’t value them.

If something else comes up — or three drops of rain fall — people don’t go because they have no skin in the game.

So SDSU officials will scratch their heads and try to come up with some other ideas. It’s back to the drawing board on how to draw a crowd.