3 thoughts: No. 1 Arizona 68, SDSU 45 … an uncomfortable reality, unfamiliar ball and underachieving trio

PHOENIX – Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 68-45 loss to No. 1 Arizona on Saturday night at the Mortgage Matchup Center:

1. Pros vs. Joes

The micro view is that the Aztecs couldn’t shoot and couldn’t rebound, that they still haven’t found their rhythm with an 11-man rotation, that the defense disappeared when the offense showed up and the offense disappeared when the defense finally showed up.

The macro view is more disconcerting.

This is part of a larger trend in college athletics rapidly partitioning Division I programs into haves and have-nots in the era of the transfer portal, NIL and revenue-sharing.

Or, as coaches sarcastically call it, unlimited free agency without a salary cap.

It’s not just men’s basketball. In football, four of the best Group of 5 teams have faced power conference programs in bowl games or the College Football Playoff this month. Washington State beat Boise State 38-10. North Carolina State beat Memphis 31-7. In Saturday’s CFP first round, Ole Miss beat Tulane 41-10 and Oregon beat James Madison 54-34 after leading 34-3.

An SDSU program that rarely gets blown out has faced the nation’s Nos. 1 and 2 teams this season. The Aztecs lost by 40 and 23 points.

In basketball, the only non-power conference team in the Associated Press Top 25 is Gonzaga, which is essentially a power conference program given its pedigree and vast financial resources without the drain of football. The top eight among others receiving votes are all from power conferences as well.

The top 25’s record against non-power conference opponents this season: 139-0.

The best 10 mid-major teams in Kenpom are 8-14 against power conferences, including SDSU’s 1-3.

Dig deeper into the Kenpom metric that rates conferences 1 through 31 by assigning a projected margin of victory for a typical member against an average team, and it’s even more pronounced. The gap between the lowest-rated power conference (Big East) and the top-rated mid-major conference (Mountain West) has fluctuated between six and eight points this season, the largest in the 30-year history of Kenpom stats.

The only variables that have changed are money and movement.

According to one informal list compiled by a power conference administrator, more than 30 teams – and pretty much the entire AP 25 – have basketball payrolls in eight figures this year, ranging from $10 million to Kentucky’s reported $22 million. In four years, SDSU went from $350,000 to just under $3 million, a remarkable achievement for an NIL collective basically run out of Jeff and Wendy Smith’s home, but still miles short in a game where the goalposts keep moving.

Money doesn’t guarantee success. But it helps. It really, really helps.

Power conferences distribute $50 million to $75 million per member per year. Mountain West schools get $6 million; the Pac-12 likely will be somewhere between $8 and $10 million.

It’s not a fair fight. It never has been, but the difference now is it’s starting to show up in the box scores.

2. The ball

Stanford beat Colorado in the night’s first game at the home of the Phoenix Suns. The Cardinal were 7 of 21 on 3s. The Buffaloes were 4 of 17.

Then Arizona and SDSU played: 6 of 25 and 1 of 14.

In all, that’s 18 of 77, or 23.4%.

Good defense? Coincidentally off shooting nights? The sightlines and backdrop of an unfamiliar arena?

Or was something else at work?

Unlike the NBA or other pro sports leagues, college basketball doesn’t use a single, uniform ball. Programs can cut their own sponsorship deals; the home team chooses the ball. In neutral-court events, the promoter does.

SDSU, Arizona, Stanford and Colorado all use Nike Elite balls. The Naismith Hall of Fame, which organizes and promotes a series of nonconference games across the country, has an endorsement contract with Spalding.

“Listen, to these guys’ credit, it’s tough,” Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd chimed in when guard Jaden Bradley was asked if the arena’s sightlines were the culprit for the substandard shooting. “They’re playing with a ball they’ve never played with before. That can be difficult. You have a couple days to prepare. It just has a different feel.

“You’re not making excuses, because I think both teams suffered from it. They were 1 of 14 from 3, and their only one was a bank. And coming into the game, they were shooting 41% from 3 as a team.”

Most Mountain West teams are affiliated with Nike. Fresno State, San Jose State and Nevada use Wilson balls. Wyoming uses Adidas.

“Listen, the ball is probably fine,” Lloyd said of the Spalding ball adorned with the Hall of Fame logo. “I’m not here to bash the ball, but if you haven’t been using it … Could you imagine baseball, where they played with a different style of baseball? They don’t do that. They have a standardized one. We just don’t have that in college basketball.”

“You’re seeing a lot of Nike balls, a lot of Wilson balls. You just don’t see many Spaldings. The Spalding throws our guys a little bit of a curve.”

As he spoke, the three Wildcat players with him on the podium tried to conceal their snickers.

3. All-conference

Even if you want to write off SDSU’s shooting woes to the ball, that doesn’t disguise the elephant in the (locker) room.

There are 10 preseason Mountain West all-conference selections, and the Aztecs have three of them. Ten games into the season, none is playing like it.

Miles Byrd, the preseason player of the year, is averaging 9.4 points per game while shooting under 40% overall and 32.6% from 3. He had big games against Troy (24 points) and Lamar (19 points), and is averaging 6.4 points in the other eight.

Reese Dixon-Waters is averaging 10.7 points, but he’s shooting 27.5% overall and 5 of 23 behind the arc in the five games since a 22-point outburst against Oregon.

Magoon Gwath is at 9.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, but he hasn’t made a 3 in five games.

“Yeah, they’ve got to start making some shots,” SDSU coach Brian Dutcher said. “We’ve had BJ (Davis) in the back pocket, and he’s bailed us out, and he had a rough night (four points, 1-of-12 shooting).

“I need one of those three to make shots for us to be competitive, and I didn’t have any of them making shots, so that made it challenging.”

Do the Aztecs feel pressure to raise their levels in order to salvage a highly anticipated season that’s suddenly heading sideways?

“I can speak for myself,” Dixon-Waters said. “I don’t view basketball as pressure. It’s a game I love to play. I view not knowing if I’ll have food tomorrow as pressure, but I don’t have situations like that. So for me, it’s easy for me to go out and play. I’ll be fine, though. I’ll keep a positive attitude and look forward to the next game and fix whatever I’ve got to do tomorrow in practice.”

Gwath scored three points on 1-of-6 shooting and had two turnovers on Saturday, but he showed a glimmer of progress. Gwath had four blocks, equaling his output in the last three games combined, and seemed more explosive off a right knee protected by a bulky brace.

“I think he’s heading in the right direction,” Dutcher said. “Some of the movement he had today, we haven’t seen yet this season – attacking the glass, moving a little more fluid on the floor, getting to his shot. I was pleased with how Magoon moved and played.

“The results weren’t there getting a basket, but I think he made a step forward with his mindset and his ability to start playing more like he’s capable of as he comes back from this injury.”

San Diego State (6-4) vs. Whittier (7-2)

When: 1 p.m. Monday

Where: Viejas Arena

TV: KUSI

Radio: 760 AM