A Path Forward: Death of Charlie Kirk reveals challenging road ahead

The assassination of conservative political activist and social media personality Charlie Kirk has me thinking a lot about circles.

Here is my view: Americans inhabit three concentric circles. (Geometrically speaking, concentric circles are a pattern of two or more circles that share the same center point but have different radii, creating a nested appearance.)

The inner circle is the largest, by far, representing nearly 70% of us. That notion was first expressed in “The Hidden Tribes of America,” published in 2018. The authors described this group as the “exhausted majority” whose moderate voices are largely unheard during times like these, when political polarization is intense. The inner circle represents the middle ground.

The outer circle – what I would call the fringe – is the smallest, but loudest. It’s been described as the political wings, liberal and conservative, representing 14% of us. But in today’s America, the outer circle is smaller but scarier, made up of people who say violence to achieve political goals can be justified (a disturbingly high 11% of U.S. adults, according to a recent YouGov poll).

That means roughly one in five (19%) of us fall somewhere in between.

Kirk’s death – and the aftermath – crystalized two things for me. When it comes to the outer circle, the best we can hope for is the opportunity for a conversation, to share our points of view. And while people in this circle are not immediately persuadable, the optimist in me believes that over time – and as circumstances change – their thinking may evolve. The messaging is worth the effort.

At the National Conflict Resolution Center, we frame it this way: Do you want to win, or do you want to be heard? Most of us want to be heard (if we can’t have both).

Along with opportunity, we have an obligation: to ostracize the voices of hate and division emanating from the outer circle, be they from the left or right, and to isolate the people encouraging violence.

Kirk’s death also illuminated the vulnerability of the 19% of Americans who are somewhere in the middle, in the circle that sits between the majority and the fringe. There is a tug of war underway for their hearts and minds. It’s playing out loudly on social media (where half of U.S. adults get at least some of their news, according to Pew Research Center) and in settings across the country, from college campuses to the halls of government.

And so, we have a second obligation – a challenge, really: to do whatever we can to expand and give voice to the inner circle, so we can change our political culture. In a tug of war, it’s incumbent upon this group to do what they can to move persuadable Americans to the moderate center.

In his return to late-night television on Tuesday, Jimmy Kimmel shared a list of issues, like affordable health care, that matter to him and that “most Americans support.” He spoke to the ways we are more alike than different. Kimmel said, “Let’s stop letting politicians tell us what they want and tell them what we want.”

His message of unity was heartening. But the reaction to Kirk’s murder suggests we have a long way to go. In a recent interview with Peter Savodnik of The Free Press, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox commented on the “not insignificant portion of our country that was happy or, at least, not sad that this happened.” Speakers at Kirk’s memorial service took it a step further, blaming “the whole left” for his assassination.

To Cox, it’s indicative of a bigger problem: a hole in our hearts. To fix it, he said, we need to build a culture “that is very different than what we are suffering through right now – not by pretending differences don’t matter, but by embracing our differences and having those hard conversations.”

The idea of disagreeing better – a core tenet of our work at NCRC – has fueled Cox for a while now. In 2023, while he was running the National Governors Association, he launched an initiative called Disagree Better, designed to help Americans bridge the partisan divide and promote civil discourse. Twenty-three governors from both parties joined the initiative.

As much as I’ve been thinking about circles, I’ve also been thinking about baseball. After all, my Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in the league, nearing 100 wins. Sitting at a Brewers game recently, I was reminded of the unifying power of sports. I had no idea which circle the person in front of me or down the row inhabited.

And that was just perfect.

Dinkin is president of the National Conflict Resolution Center, a San Diego-based group working to create solutions to challenging issues, including intolerance and incivility. To learn about NCRC’s programming, visit ncrconline.com