Can San Diego FC win Monday and advance? A look at the questions facing the top-seeded club

The last time San Diego FC hosted Minnesota United, the expansion club dominated the stat sheet.

SDFC outshot the Loons 28-6, had more than twice as many shots on target (14) than the visitors did (6), controlled the clock for 66% of the time and completed 527 passes to Minnesota’s 199.

And San Diego FC got absolutely smoked.

Minnesota United’s Anthony Markanich and Carlos Harvey scored within three minutes of each other in the second half and Nectarios Triantis tacked on a goal in stoppage time of the Sept. 13 match. Only a Jeppe Tverskov score in the game’s dying seconds kept SDFC from being shut out; the club lost, 3-1.

“I felt we were really good, but we didn’t score goals,” SDFC forward Amahl Pellegrino said last week. “If you don’t score goals, you don’t win the game.”

Top-seeded SDFC will host Minnesota United at 7 p.m. Monday in the MLS Western Conference semifinals at Snapdragon Stadium. The biggest match in franchise history may well hinge on these four questions:

How has the downtime affected both teams?

MLS has its quirks, perhaps none stranger than this: The league this year took a two-week break in the middle of the playoffs to accommodate FIFA’s international windows. Top players scattered to their national teams for World Cup qualifiers and friendlies, while the rest stayed behind with their MLS teams, trained — and waited.

It’s strange, yes. But is the mid-playoff break beneficial? Detrimental?

“It can be both,” Pellegrino said. “ Of course, it’s not only on us. It’s the same for Minnesota.”

The time off allows some players to get healthy, yes, but it’s a momentum-killer for teams, like SDFC, that have been hot. And god forbid a player get hurt or sick while playing for his national team. Which brings us to …

How healthy are San Diego’s stars?

San Diego FC’s Hirving “Chucky” Lozano did not play for Mexico’s national team on Tuesday night because of a hamstring issue.

That same day, SDFC’s top player, Anders Dreyer, was left home from Denmark’s World Cup qualifier against Scotland after contracting a virus.

There was immediate concern that both would be unable to play against Minnesota. But Lozano and Dreyer returned to San Diego midweek, and took part in regular training at SDFC’s Singing Hills headquarters. Coach Mikey Varas offered a one-word answer – “Yes” – when asked if either would be available to face Minnesota United.

Dreyer is the one player SDFC can least afford to lose. The league’s Newcomer of the Year and a finalist for MLS’ Landon Donovan MVP Award, Dreyer leads SDFC in goals and assists.

Lozano, who was benched and then removed from the starting lineup following a tantrum in a late-season match, offers experience, a deft scoring touch — and, critically, experience in penalty shootouts.

Here’s another MLS quirk: While the first round of the playoffs were best-of-three and included penalty shootouts (but no overtime), the win-and-go-home matches that make up the next three rounds include two 15-minute overtime periods and then, if the match remains tied, a penalty shootout.

SDFC experienced its first-ever shootout in Game 2 of its first-round series against the Portland Timbers. Just two San Diego players converted their attempts — Lozano and Dreyer.

Can SDFC stop the Loons’ set pieces?

No team in MLS is better at scoring off set pieces — that is, free kicks, corner kicks and throw-ins — than the Loons.

Minnesota United has scored a league-best 25 goals off set pieces this season, according to Opta Analyst. That’s nearly 41% of its scoring for the season.

SDFC has scored just 10 goals off set pieces, accounting for 13.89% of its scoring.

That’s by design: Loons coach Eric Ramsay was in charge of set pieces while coaching with global powerhouse Manchester United. The Loons’ situational success has been a great equalizer, which may explain how Minnesota has been able to stay competitive despite selling star Tani Oluwaseyi to Villarreal of Spain’s La Liga and Sang Bin Jeong to St. Louis City.

SDFC goalkeeper Pablo Sisniega is making his second straight playoff start in place of the injured C.J. dos Santos after spending most of the season as the club’s backup. It’s key that he communicate with SDFC’s defenders as Minnesota United sets up.

“We know they’re a team that’s really good at set pieces,” Sisniega said. “We’re going to be ready for that.”

Who’s going to score, anyway?

San Diego FC has scored 17 goals since its September loss to Minnesota. Fourteen of them have been scored by either Dreyer (8) or Pellegrino (6). (The others to score: Luca de la Torre, Onni Valakari and Lozano).

So for all the talk about schedules and setpieces, strategy and statistics, the match could come down to how well Dreyer and Pellegrino play.

And how many times they find the back of the net.

“It has been boring; almost two weeks now without playing games,” Pellegrino said. “We’re really looking to Monday, and Monday can’t come soon enough.”

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MLS Western Conference Semifinals: San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United

When: 7 p.m. Monday

Streaming: AppleTV+

Radio: 95.7-FM, 1700-AM (Spanish)