Econometer: What are you thankful for about the economy?

It has been a complicated year for San Diego County’s economy with the unemployment rate hitting the highest point since 2021 and inflation picking back up again. Yet there have been some bright spots, with tariffs seemingly having less of an impact than originally thought and, at the state level, new laws to speed up homebuilding.

Question: What are you most thankful for, economically, this Thanksgiving?

Economists

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

The stock market. The S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year, and that helps the 60% of Americans who directly or indirectly own stocks. Unfortunately, that leaves nearly 40% of the country out and adds to growing wealth and income inequality. But there were slim pickings for good news: The labor market is weak, inflation is higher than desirable, especially the price of housing, and the Fed is in a box with interest rates as it has to deal with the possibility of stagflation.

James Hamilton, UC San Diego

Backing away from tariffs. I am thankful that the tariffs the president implemented were milder than he had earlier threatened and that he is backing down further. This is not just good news for the economy, but also for Americans who are struggling to make ends meet. It also signals that there are some advisers in the White House who are not afraid to tell the president when things are not going the way he anticipated and that the president is willing to listen.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego

Technological optimism and SALT limit increases. I appreciate the increase in SALT (state and local tax deduction) limits as it seems unfair to not be able to deduct tax payments from income prior to federal taxation. In the broader context, I am thankful that AI spending is creating so many new jobs, leasing real estate and helping offset the slower consumer spending. Otherwise, it seems we have no coherent economic policy or strategy, and I will be thankful when the uncertainty ends.

Caroline Freund, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy

U.S.-China tensions de-escalate. I am grateful that U.S.-China tensions have de-escalated. Punitive tariffs above 100% would raise prices for American families and squeeze small businesses that need parts and components from China. Similarly, Chinese export controls on rare earths would choke our own innovation and competitiveness in emerging technologies. In a global economy, cooperation isn’t optional — it’s how we protect our prosperity and lower the risk of conflict.

Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research

Free speech. I am grateful freedom of speech remains a core principle of American life. Free speech is economically essential in scientific discovery, technological advancement and creative solutions for complex problems. This freedom allows creative innovators to turn talents into financially viable careers, fostering economic improvement. Nurturing the open “marketplace of ideas” is important in allowing diverse perspectives to develop new ideas, fueling innovation, entrepreneurship, and collaboration, and is essential for sustaining economic progress and raising living standards.

David Ely, San Diego State University

Resilient economy. Over the past year, the U.S. economy has been subjected to a number of shocks, including higher and unpredictable tariffs, a long federal government shutdown that impacted federal employees and government contractors, consumer unease over high prices, attacks on the Fed’s independence, immigration policies, and a rising fear that AI will displace workers. But despite these disruptions, the economy continues to grow and the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.

Ray Major, economist

Lower Inflation. This year I’m thankful that inflation was brought under control. Inflation has the most devastating impact on the average American family’s standard of living. Inflation eroded years of increasing standard of living in just a matter of months. After peaking at 9.1% in 2022, inflation fell to 3% as of September. The lower inflation rate helps average families preserve and rebuild purchasing power. It eases the cost of borrowing, makes savings more meaningful and reduces the dangerous wage-price spiral.

Executives

Austin Neudecker, Weave Growth

Economic resilience. Despite policy and geopolitical turmoil, U.S. businesses have weathered a volatile year. New business formation remains elevated, unemployment is low, and real wages have inched higher. Productivity is starting to improve as firms adopt AI, software and new processes, generating growth without external stimulus. Tariff shocks will still ripple through supply chains, but the base is sturdier than many expected. I’m grateful for a private sector that continues to adapt while policymakers argue.

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

No recession. I am thankful that the economy has not dropped into a recession, even though there have been signs of instability, continued inflation for a year or more and we did see a start to interest rate drops by the Fed. I’m hopeful we will see increasing stability in the year to come, along with good, modest growth.

Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere

Resiliency of the American people and the stock market. This year brought natural disasters, economic challenges, and political strife, including the recent government shutdown, which strained families and businesses across the country. Yet communities rallied, with local, state and national organizations stepping up to support those in need. Amid the uncertainty, it was encouraging to see the stock market remain relatively steady, reflecting the strength of our economy. I’m thankful for the resilience that continues to move our nation forward.

Gary London, London Moeder Advisors

A diverse nation. I am thankful that we are a sufficiently strong, diverse nation of people who will press their policymakers to forge a better path out of the wilderness of chaos, the panoply of tariffs, immigration crackdown, deals with stooges, and other peculiar approaches to economic policy that have characterized this past year, and are likely to continue. We are a resolute nation, and we will get through this. That is what I promise my children.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates

Encouraging economic climate. Marked by a strong stock market, steady growth, and resilient consumer confidence. The avoidance of a prolonged economic shutdown brings welcome stability, while tourism shows signs of renewed strength with more international tourism and the World Cup after a challenging year. Our region’s dynamic blend of military, education, communications technology, and biosciences further fuels optimism. Together, these forces inspire confidence in continued progress and prosperity.

Phil Blair, ManpowerThe unemployment rate. If those who want to work have the opportunity to work, most other issues fall away. The other telling report is customer confidence in the economy. We need consistency around fair tariffs, open trade, investment in infrastructure and affordable prices for our middle class.

Have an idea for an Econometer question? Email me at phillip.molnar@sduniontribune.com. Follow me on Threads: @phillip020