First look: Padres traveling to face Cubs in NL wild-card series

Few people in the Padres organization know the Chicago Cubs like Mike Shildt, who made multiple trips to Wrigley Field each season during his four-year stint as the manager of the St. Louis Cardinals.

These Cubs, of course, aren’t all that familiar as quite a bit has changed since the two teams split the six games they played in April.

The Cubs added to the edges of one of the NL’s best rosters — super utility man Willi Castro and relievers Taylor Rogers and Mike Soroka — while the Padres made arguably the biggest splash, adding left-handed bats in Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn, a catcher in Freddy Fermin and adding flamethrower Mason Miller to baseball’s best bullpen.

The Padres have since lost All-Star Jason Adam to a ruptured quad tendon and Laureano’s “shattered” finger certainly changes things a bit, too, heading into Tuesday’s series at Wrigley Field.

“A lot of water under the bridge right in the last five months since April,” Shildt said. “ … We have a different roster. They have some (differences on the) roster. We also have some commonalities with some people that have been in the league, on both sides, that that everybody’s familiar with, so we have an understanding of who they are. …

“We’ve got our mind on this series (against the Diamondbacks) and we also have some attention toward getting prepared for that series as well.”

No. 5 Padres vs. No. 4 Cubs

SCHEDULE

(Best of three, all games on ESPN Plat, 97.3 The Fan, XEMO 860)

• Game 1: Padres RHP Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA) at Cubs TBA, TBA
• Game 2: Padres TBA at Cubs TBA, TBA
• Game 3 (if necessary): Padres TBA at Cubs TBA, TBA

WHAT TO KNOW

• Records: Padres 88-72 (Through Friday, 2nd in NL West), Cubs 91-70 (2nd in NL Central)
• Head-to-head: The Padres and Cubs split the six games played in April, with both teams scoring 25 runs each.
• Recent postseason history: The Padres are in the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time since back-to-back NL West titles in 2005 and 2006. The Padres have also qualified for the postseason four times in the last six years, reaching as deep as the NLCS in 2022. The Cubs are back in the playoffs for the first time since they were swept in two games in a 2020 wild-card series. That capped a run of five postseason berths in six years, which included their 2016 World Series title. This is the second postseason meeting between these two teams, with the Padres beating the Cubs in five games in the NLCS in 1984 to advance to their first World Series.
• Going to WAR (fangraphs.com): Padres—OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.7), RHP Nick Pivetta (3.7), 3B Manny Machado (3.6), RHP Dylan Cease (3.4), SS Xander Bogaerts (3.0); Cubs—OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.1), 2B Nico Hoerner (4.7), OF Kyle Tucker (4.7), LHP Matthew Boyd (3.4), SS Dansby Swanson (3.3).
• Health check: Padres OF Ramón Laureano fractured his right index finger on Wednesday, which is expected to sideline him through at least the first two rounds of the playoffs. LHP Nestor Cortes hit the injured list in early September with biceps tendonitis and has yet to make it back to the team, while RHP Joe Musgrove (Tommy John) is continuing to throw bullpens in hopes of making himself available in later rounds. RHP Jason Adam (quad) is done for the year. …  As far as the Cubs, they got OF Kyle Tucker back from his calf strain on Friday but they learned on Saturday that RHP Cade Horton is dealing with a right rib fracture that could threaten his postseason availability. C Miguel Amaya (ankle), OF Owen Caissie (concussion) and RHP Ryan Brasier (groin) are without timetables, while LHP Justin Steele (elbow) won’t return until next year.

RANKS

• AVG: Padres (.252, 7th), Cubs (.250, 13th)
• OBP: Padres (.321, 12th), Cubs (.321, 10th)
• SLG: Padres (.388,23rd , Cubs (.431, 6th)
• HRs: Padres (148, 28th), Cubs (222, 6th)
• BA w/RISP: (.249, 22nd), Cubs (.266, 7th)
• SB: Padres (106, 18th), Cubs (161, 3rd)
• SP ERA: Padres (4.09, 16th), Cubs (3.85, 10th)
• RP ERA: Padres (3.06, 1st), Cubs (3.80, 12th)
• DRS: Padres (24, 14th), Cubs (79, 2nd)

CLUBHOUSE LEADERS

• OPS: Padres—OF Ramón Laureano (.854), OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (.807), 3B Manny Machado (.787); Cubs—1B Michael Busch (.871), OF Kyle Tucker (.846), DH Seiya Suzuki (.800).
• HRs: Padres—Machado (26), Laureano (24), Tatis (24); Cubs—Busch (34), Suzuki (31), OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (31).
• RBIs: Padres—Machado (93), Laureano (76), Tatis (70), DH Gavin Sheets (70); Cubs—Suzuki (102), Crow-Armstrong (95), Busch (90).
• Steals: Padres—Tatis (32), SS Xander Bogaerts (20), Machado (14); Cubs—Crow-Armstrong (35), Hoerner (29), Tucker (25).
• Saves: Padres—RHP Robert Suarez (40-for-45, 3.01 ERA), RHP Mason Miller (22-for-26, 2.67 ERA); Cubs—RHP Daniel Palencia (22-for-25, 2.91 ERA).
• Holds: Padres—RHP Jeremiah Estrada (30, 3.50 ERA), RHP Jason Adam (29, 1.93 ERA), LHP Adrián Morejón (20, 2.11 ERA); Cubs—RHP Brad Keller (25, 2.07 ERA), LHP Caleb Thielbar (25, 2.64 ERA), LHP Drew Pomeranz (14, 2.17 ERA).

THINGS TO WATCH

The Cubs traded a chunk of their future (Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski) for OF Kyle Tucker’s walk year and watched the 28-year-old outfielder scuffle in July (.675 OPS) and August (.735 OPS) and lose most of September to a calf strain. Tucker hit 17 of his 22 homers before the All-Star break (.882 OPS) and went 1-for-8 with a walk while serving as the DH on Friday and Saturday, his first games off the injured list

The left-handed-hitting Tucker is hardly the only Cub capable of doing damage against the right-handed pitching that the Padres will carry into the series. Among the healthy regulars, 1B Michael Busch leads the Cubs with a .914 OPS against righties, followed by Tucker (.853), OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (.837), DH Seiya Suzuki (.795) and OF Ian Happ (.793). Beyond Pivetta starting Game 1, the right-handers in the Padres rotation — Dylan Cease (8-12, 4.55 ERA), Michael King (5-3, 3.57 ERA) and Yu Darvish (4-5, 5.51 ERA) — are all question marks heading into Chicago. Cease has been difficult to count on during this walk year, King has spent more time on the IL than off it and has made just five starts since May and Darvish hasn’t been quite Darvish all year.

OF Ramón Laureano’s fractured finger removes the optionality that emerged after the trade deadline, although Shildt will have to consider whether he wants all of his interchangeable left-handed hitters — Gavin Sheets, Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth — against Cubs lefties Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd. The right-handed hitting Jose Iglesias and switch-hitting Bryce Johnson are options for the infield and outfield, respectively, if the Padres want to boost production against left-handers. The team’s .684 OPS against lefties ranked 19th in the majors. O’Hearn led the team with a 1.063 OPS against lefties after the trade deadline, followed by Laureano (.990). Here’s how the rest of the Padres’ hitters rank in OPS against left-handers: 3B Manny Machado (.826), SS Xander Bogaerts (.756), Cronenworth (.718), Johnson (.697), OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (.696), Sheets (.693), Iglesias (.676), Arraez (.643), OF Jackson Merrill (.640), C Elias Díaz (.510) and C Freddy Fermin (.395).

CROSS-TOWN CONNECTIONS

Jed Hoyer, the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, first became a full fledged in the Padres’ front office, where he worked from October 2009 until leaving for Chicago in October 2011. Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty got his start in coaching in San Diego in 2020 and was on Jayce Tingler’s and later Bob Melvin’s staff before leaving to join Craig Counsell’s staff in 2024. Native San Diegan Quintin Berry played at Morse High, Grossmont College and San Diego State and even spent some time in the Padres’ farm system. As far as former Padres in the game, LHP Drew Pomeranz was paid $34 million for four injury-riddled seasons in San Diego and he only pitched in two of those years (2.21 ERA, 146 ⅓ IP). Pomeranz also pitched a half-season as an All-Star starting pitcher for the Padres in 2016 before he was traded to Boston. RHP Colin Rea was a 12th-rounder in 2011 who pitched parts of two seasons in the majors with the Padres, while LHP Taylor Rogers saved 28 games in 2022 before the Padres traded him to the Brewers ahead of that year’s deadline. On the flip side, RHP Yu Darvish pitched three years in Chicago before he was traded to the Padres before the 2021 season for RHP Zach Davies and four prospects, including OF Owen Caissie, who made his MLB debut this year. RHP Dylan Cease (2014) and Jeremiah Estrada (2017) were both drafted by the Cubs in the sixth round.