Horse racing column: A forever wait can end in the Breeders’ Cup Classic

DEL MAR — Bill Mott didn’t stop thinking about the Breeders’ Cup Classic after he declared his horse, the morning-line favorite Sovereignty, out of America’s richest race.

Wednesday morning outside barn DD, as Mott talked with one reporter after another about the fever that sidelined Sovereignty, the trainer discussed the excellent lineup of horses still running in the Classic on Saturday at Del Mar.

I asked him about Forever Young, the Japan-based horse who’s an X-factor alongside seven North American Grade I stakes winners.

“I think he’s the horse everybody’s got to beat,” Mott said.

“The horse everybody’s got to beat,” I said, repeating it to make sure I heard right.

“Oh, yeah,” Mott said. “I mean, look at his form. I mean, he’s competed well (when) he ran in this race last year. He’s a world traveler, he’s run well everywhere he’s gone. I think he’s a formidable opponent. The others are too. I’m not taking anything away (from them).”

Forever Young has popped up in the United States twice previously, coming close to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year.

But half of his dozen career starts and six of his nine victories have come in Japan, and his biggest win came in Riyadh in the $20 million Saudi Cup in February.

“Because we don’t watch him in our country year-round, I think he’s a little bit of a sleeper,” Mott said.

This is the kind of backstretch chatter you love. It comes from as knowledgeable a man as you’ll find, a Hall of Fame trainer with two Breeders’ Cup Classic winners (Cigar, Drosselmeyer) and two Horse of the Year champions (Cigar, Cody’s Wish) to his name. And it confirms what you were already thinking, that this could be Forever Young’s moment.

Products of Japan’s burgeoning thoroughbred industry have won three other Breeders’ Cup races and have looked like threats before in the Classic as well as the American Triple Crown races.

Forever Young has come closest of any Japan-based horse to breaking through and winning one of America’s greatest races when he finished a hard-luck third, in a photo with Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone, in the roughly run 2024 Kentucky Derby, and a gaining third, behind Sierra Leone and Fierceness, in last November’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar.

Fans here might not expect this, but of all the horses entered in the 14 Breeders’ Cup races Friday and Saturday, none is higher in the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (tied for No. 2 behind three European turf runners who aren’t here). Among Classic runners Saturday he’s third in the Thoroughbred Racing Commentary rankings (No. 11 overall, behind No. 4 Fierceness and No. 7 Journalism).

After returning from a nearly six-month freshening to win a warmup race in Funabashi at the beginning of October, the Japan-bred 4-year-old by Real Steel came back to Del Mar with trainer Yoshito Yahagi and jockey Ryusei Sakai intent on what they call “redemption” for last year’s third-place finish.

Yahagi says they got the strategy wrong in that Classic, thinking they had to use Forever Young’s early speed to avoid trouble out of post position 1 and ending up close to a fast pace. This time he’d like to see Forever Young race in mid-pack early.

Sakai declared a workout Wednesday, in company with Yahagi’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint horse American Stage, “perfect.”

“I believe his condition is better than last year. His hind quarter got much stronger, it is beautiful, as well as he’s mentally matured,” Yahagi said in quotes through a translator and transcribed by Breeders’ Cup publicists.

But don’t take the word of the horse’s own trainer. Or mine.

Do take Bill Mott’s word for it that Forever Young is a good pick for a mild upset in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic.

After Sovereignty’s scratch, the new morning-line favorite is 5-2 Fierceness, the Pacific Classic winner at Del Mar in August. Co-second on the line are defending Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Sierra Leone and Forever Young at 7-2. They’re followed by 5-1 Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness winner and Pacific Classic runner-up, 6-1 Mindframe, 10-1 Baeza and Antiquarian, 20-1 Nevada Beach and 50-1 Contrary Thinking.

I’m picking Journalism second, expecting improvement and more aggressive tactics after a two-month layoff and jockey switch to Jose Ortiz. That leaves Fierceness third, Sierra Leone fourth and Mindframe fifth. It’s as deep and well-matched a field as any in 42 runnings of the Classic.

For more Breeders’ Cup picks, the Southern California News Group papers have Bob Mieszerski’s full handicap in print, and 1-2-3 picks for every race by Mieszerski, Eddie Wilson, Mark Ratzky and me in the consensus box online and in the papers’ Ponies Express email newsletter. The San Diego Union-Tribune has Mike Superstein’s full handicap in print.

I’ll present my picks for the Breeders’ Cup races in a different way here. For each race, I’ve listed two horses. The first is my choice for likeliest winner, and the second is the “don’t forget where you heard it” horse with a chance to win at inviting odds.

Friday

Juvenile Turf Sprint: True Love, Lennilu

Juvenile Fillies: Tommy Jo, Bottle of Rouge

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Precise, Ultimate Love

Juvenile: Ted Noffey, Intrepido

Juvenile Turf: Gstaad, Hey Nay Nay

Saturday

Filly and Mare Sprint: Sweet Azteca, Splendora

Turf Sprint: Arizona Blaze, Bucanero Fuerte

Sprint: Bentornato, Lovesick Blues

Distaff: Seismic Beauty, Clicquot

Turf: Minnie Hauk, Goliath

Classic: Forever Young, Mindframe

Mile: Notable Speech, Formidable Man

Dirt Mile: Nysos, Goal Oriented

Filly and Mare Turf: Cinderella’s Dream, Mission of Joy

Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.

SANTA ANITA STANDINGS

(Final)

Jockeys / Wins

Juan Hernandez / 28

Umberto Rispoli / 19

Hector Berrios / 13

Kazushi Kimura / 13

Antonio Fresu / 12

Armando Ayuso / 10

Diego Herrera / 9

Trainers / Wins

Phil D’Amato / 13

Bob Baffert / 11

Doug O’Neill / 10

Steve Knapp / 8

Jeff Mullins / 7

Michael McCarthy / 7

John Sadler / 7