Michael Smolens: Redistricting could mean a tough challenge for Issa — from Republicans

Rep. Darrell Issa may well remain in a heavily Republican congressional district if Gov. Gavin Newsom successfully pushes through a new congressional redistricting plan.

Unfortunately for Issa, he could face serious GOP competition, potentially from other current Republican incumbents.

A redistricting arms race appears to be at hand, triggered by the Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redrawing of congressional lines in a desperate effort to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections.

The consequences would be far reaching and upend an already volatile political world.

In California, Texas and other states that join the fray, some current Democratic and Republican members of Congress like Issa would no longer have safe seats they could occupy for a long time, provided they stayed out of trouble.

At the behest of President Donald Trump, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and legislative Lone Star Republicans are moving ahead with a realignment of congressional districts that could pad the state’s GOP congressional delegation majority by five more seats.

The razor-thin Republican control in the House presents Democrats with a prime opportunity to win the majority next year, especially given that midterm elections are generally unkind to the political party that holds the White House.

Democrats and some other political experts have decried the move in Texas because redistricting is supposed to occur only once a decade — after the national census — to realign districts to reflect population changes.

Newsom was among them, but he argues that Democratic states have no choice but to try to redraw their districts to counter Texas.

“California won’t sit back and watch this happen,” he said on social media.

There are logistical and political complications Texas doesn’t have — specifically, sidestepping independent redistricting commissions in some states, including California, where it was approved by voters.

But Newsom clearly believes those hurdles can be overcome in California and that voters can be persuaded to forge a realignment to help Democrats. Never mind that the effort has the convenient byproduct of playing into Newsom’s presidential ambitions for 2028.

Leading a high-spending redistricting campaign that, if successful, helps Democrats seize the House would seemingly make Newsom a hero among the party faithful across the country.

There’s momentum right now for all this to happen, but that could change. Perhaps the move by California — and potentially similar Democratic efforts in Illinois, New York and other states — will convince Texas Republicans to back off, as unlikely as that seems at the moment.

There’s also the potential of Republican states such as Florida jumping in.

California Democrats are considering approaches that would require a special election, likely in November at a cost of more than $200 million, or a legally riskier move for the Legislature to redraw the maps without a public vote.

Regardless, none of this is good news for Issa and other California Republican members of Congress. Currently, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation 43-9. Redistricting experts across the spectrum say the GOP representation could shrink to three or four members.

Among them is Matt Rexroad, a longtime California Republican political consultant who specializes in redistricting. He makes clear he doesn’t think the looming gerrymandering binge is good for either party in the long run, or for governance, or for the United States in general.

“It really goes to the principle of winning elections that’s not based on ideas,” he said in an interview. “It’s really changing the rules of the game.”

He further said there’s potential this could backfire on both Democrats and Republicans.

Having said that, Rexroad was pretty sure he could whittle down the number of Republican districts “in about 15 minutes” and that his Democratic counterparts could do the same.

Rexroad said there are basically two ways to go about it: Split up GOP districts to make them better targets for Democrats, or consolidate them.

He believes the latter will be what happens.

“Instead of mildly safe Republican districts, they’ll make three or four overwhelmingly Republican districts,” he said.

Rexroad said three Republican-heavy regions would be likely targets for the few GOP districts: the Eastern Sierra, the Bakersfield area and eastern San Diego County-southern Riverside County.

Issa’s current 48th District already includes much of East County and a bit of southern Riverside, which would seemingly give him an upper hand in the GOP musical chairs. Other adjacent and relatively nearby districts represented by Republicans include the 23rd (Jay Obernolte), 40th (Young Kim) and 41st (Ken Calvert).

Whether any or all of them become potential competitors for Issa depends on many things, with how the new district is drawn chief among them. The district could potentially include more far-flung areas or candidates outside the region. It is not a requirement that candidates or members of Congress live in their districts.

All the incumbents have proved adept at fundraising, particularly Calvert and Kim, who have been regular Democratic targets. But Issa is one of the wealthiest members in the House and has never been shy about dipping deep into his own pockets.

Rexroad suggested the potential competition in fewer GOP districts would be like “a knife fight in a phone booth.”

But he also said jockeying among Democratic state legislators to create congressional districts they might want to represent someday would complicate things on the other side.

Should this come to pass, Issa would encounter a political sea change in yet another district in his 25-year congressional career. For many years, he represented a district that straddled the San Diego-Orange County line near the coast. Shifting demographics and the rise of Trump made that district increasingly Democratic.

Issa saw the handwriting on the wall and didn’t run in 2018, an election won by Democrat Mike Levin, who continues to represent the district. Issa shifted his political focus to the east and in 2020 won what appeared to be a long-term safe seat for him.

That previous change was somewhat politically organic. This one would be anything but.

What they said

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn. (@ChrisMurphyCT)

“I hate what Texas is doing. But … as norms change, we can’t just cry about it, complain about it. We’ve got to fight fire with fire.”