NFL DFS Week 1 Optimal Lineup: Brian Thomas Jr. highlights Jaguars stack

If Week 18 is the NFL’s bizarro week, where the competition can either resemble the playoffs or the preseason, or an amalgamation of both, depending on the matchup, then Week 1 is where we don’t know what we don’t know.

Last year, the Saints scored 47 points in a rout of the Panthers to open the season, and followed that up with 44 points against the Cowboys in Week 2 before losing seven straight and costing head coach Dennis Allen his job.

Norm Van Brocklin threw for 554 yards and five touchdowns for the Rams in a Week 1 blowout of the New York Yanks in 1951, an NFL record for passing yards in a single game that incredibly still stands. Van Brocklin’s previous career-high was 293 passing yards in a game. He finished the season with 13 TD passes and eclipsed 300 passing yards in a game only five more times in his Hall of Fame career.

This isn’t to demean Van Brocklin — he was a key figure in demonstrating the power and potential of a high-volume pass offense — merely to illustrate how strange things are most definitely afoot at the Circle-K in Week 1.

The good news is DraftKings knows about as much as we do this week, which means historically, the salaries are soft to begin the season. Your imagination is your only restraint when it comes to building a lineup this week.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

Week 1 Lineup

QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($5,300)

It’s now or never for Lawrence. The additions of Liam Coen and Travis Hunter vaporize any possible remaining excuses of why the former No. 1 overall pick can’t reach his full potential. Coen helped another former top pick (Baker Mayfield) figure it out in Tampa Bay. The offensive guru scripted plays that got the ball out of Mayfield’s hand quickly, establishing a rhythm, and coupled with a downhill run game, created space for his pass catchers. I imagine he’ll attempt something similar with Lawrence. No team on Sunday’s slate allowed more DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks last year than the Panthers. I’m skeptical the return of Pro Bowl defensive lineman Derrick Brown will paper over all the cracks.

RB: James Conner, Cardinals ($6,100)

I’m also skeptical Trey Benson will be more involved in Arizona’s offense, at least to begin the season. Conner provides one of the best floor/ceiling combos on the slate. The Cardinals are a road favorite (6½) in the Big Easy, which means the game script could feature a heavy dose of the reliable back if they jump out to an early lead. Conner has averaged almost 19 DraftKings points in 10 games when favored by more than four points since signing with Arizona (per the Trends tool over at FantasyLabs).

RB: TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots ($5,500)

Rhamondre Stevenson still exists, but Henderson was one of my favorite players in this past draft class, and he did nothing during training camp or in the preseason to dampen my excitement. New England would be wise to utilize him in a similar fashion to how the Lions deployed Jahmyr Gibbs his rookie season.

WR: Nico Collins, Texans ($7,400)

The Rams tried to trade for All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander and even attempted to bring Jalen Ramsey back to L.A. There’s a reason for that. The cornerback room could be the Achilles heel to a potentially top-five defense. I don’t believe either team will be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup, which means double-digit targets are on the table for Collins.

WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($6,800)

Both Thomas and Collins are capable of posting the top score on the slate. Defenses will have a hard time keying on the dynamic playmaker with No. 2 overall pick Hunter drawing their attention elsewhere.

WR: Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers ($5,200)

McMillan’s price was set long before Adam Thielen was traded and Jalen Coker suffered a quad injury, which will cause him to miss four to six weeks. Adding the talented rookie as a “bring back” to my Jaguars mini-stack gives me a team’s WR1 at an extreme discount in a potentially high-scoring game environment. A Panthers-Jaguars stack also gains leverage on a field who will likely be stacking the Buccaneers-Falcons matchup.

TE: Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($3,400)

You absolutely don’t have to pay down at tight end this week, but I actually like Okonkwo’s upside. He finished as the TE10 in PPR from Weeks 13-17 last year, despite not scoring a TD. Tennessee upgraded significantly at QB by drafting Cam Ward, and rookie quarterbacks are famously fond of throwing to tight ends. It also works as a mini-stack with my defense. I’m anticipating the Titans playing from behind, so there should be some volume in the pass game with Calvin Ridley drawing shadow coverage from last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II.

FLEX: Drake London, Falcons ($6,500)

I may not be stacking the Bucs-Falcons, but London works as a one-off. He received eight, 13 and 18 targets in Michael Penix’s three starts to finish last season. I expect more of the same in a potential high-scoring affair.

DST: Denver Broncos ($3,800)

No one likes paying a premium for a defense, but the Broncos could be historically good if they’re blessed with health, they’re at home, and they face a rookie in his first career start.