NFL DFS Week 12 Optimal Lineup: Vintage Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry on tap

Word to the wise: If I say play Josh Allen in this space, you should play Josh Allen.

Allen has scored 13 touchdowns the last three times I’ve included him in The Lineup.

He had 40.28 DraftKings points in Week 15 last season in an epic 48-42 victory over the Detroit Lions. He had 24.4 DK points to help secure the Buffalo Bills’ AFC East title in a 40-14 win over the New York Jets two weeks later.

And last week, Allen produced 47.68 DK points on his way to becoming the only player in NFL history to throw for three TDs and run for three TDs in the same game twice in his career. The only other player to accomplish the feat once was Otto Graham in the 1954 NFL Championship game in a 56-10 victory by the Cleveland Browns over the Lions.

Alas, despite Allen’s heroics, last week was a microcosm of my season. There’s been a lot of hits, but they’ve rarely aligned on the same roster.

This week, the “meta” revolves around the Lions in a bounce-back spot against the New York Giants. I’m perfectly fine with onslaughting them. Detroit hasn’t lost back-to-back games since October of 2022, and has won by 17, 31, 15 and 22 points following its previous four losses.

I’ll have a piece of that pie, but I’m playing a little looser this week.

There’s less correlation than most weeks. I’m relying more on my ball knowledge.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for today’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I’m in the red $85 with an average score of 134.46 points through 11 weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 95.52

Week 2: 124.90

Week 3: 181.44

Week 4: 142.88

Week 5: 162.24

Week 6: 117.24

Week 7: 116.46

Week 8: 158.26

Week 9: 146.94

Week 10: 114.44

Week 11: 118.68

Week 12 lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($6,800)

Mahomes is averaging 26.62 DK points per game at home this season, second only to Allen (31.43). The matchup with the Colts will feel like a playoff game with Kansas City currently ninth in the AFC at 5-5. Plus, the Chiefs have never lost three straight games with Mahomes. This just seems like the type of situation that calls for the greatest quarterback of his generation to produce a vintage performance.

RB: Derrick Henry, Ravens ($7,600)

Baltimore’s in a similar situation as the Chiefs, sitting at 5-5 and currently out of the playoffs, but K.C. actually owns the tiebreaker courtesy of a 37-20 win in September. So maybe things are a little more dire overall, but this week the Ravens face the rudderless Jets and are heavy favorites (-13½) at home. Henry has played in eight games with Baltimore as a 7½-plus point favorite, and he’s averaged 19 carries for 103 yards and a TD. According to StatRankings.com, Henry has averaged 3.75 yards per carry in games without Lamar Jackson and 5.5 yards per carry in games with Jackson.

RB: TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots ($6,700)

The dark side of Mike Vrabel’s trust in Rhamondre Stevenson clouds everything, but Stevenson is returning after missing three games with a turf toe injury. Turf toe doesn’t just go away. Ask Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy. Regardless, running backs go nuclear against the Bengals. Cincy has allowed an average of 37.32 DK points to opposing backfields in its last six games, and Stevenson returning has likely scared the field away from an obvious smash spot.

WR: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($7,900)

Elite ceiling, suppressed ownership. Lamb’s been good, but he hasn’t had an eruption this season. He had a pretty bad drop against the Eagles in Week 1 that cost Dallas a shot at the upset. I’m pretty sure that’ll be top of mind in the rematch.

WR: Luther Burden III, Bears ($3,600)

Burden finally passed Olamide Zaccheaus in three-receiver sets for the first time in Week 11. He’s played at least 44% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in two straight games after not topping 28.8% in his previous seven. According to Fantasy Pros, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers since Week 7.

WR: Isaiah Hodgins, Giants ($3,300)

Hodgins had a nice rapport with Jameis Winston last week against the Packers, catching five balls for 57 yards on six targets. I’m expecting Winston to sling it, as per usual, while the G-Men chase points all day at Detroit. Darius Slayton also returns this week after missing time with a hamstring injury, but a hamstring is such a fickle thing.

TE: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($3,200)

I joked last week offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would likely funnel all the targets through Pittsburgh’s third tight end Darnell Washington after I double-stacked Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith to take advantage of a premium matchup against the Bengals. Freiermuth and Smith combined for one reception for 19 yards and only three targets. Washington finished with four receptions on five targets for 67 yards. Hilarious. The Bears secondary is banged up, and they’ll be missing their top three linebackers against the Steelers, so I’m humbly running Freiermuth back.

FLEX: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($8,000)

The Giants inexplicably play the most man coverage in the NFL. St. Brown managed just two receptions in a difficult matchup at Philly last week, but he still saw 12 targets. Of all the Lions, he’s the one who needs to get right the most ahead of a huge Thanksgiving matchup with Green Bay.

DST: Cleveland Browns ($2,900)

Myles Garrett vs. the Raiders’ offensive line. That’s all I got.