Nick Canepa: Thanks to QB, D, Chargers have more than a puncher’s chance in playoff opener

Sez Me …

Most everything, even stuff without a point, points to the NFL Team That Used To Be Here — you know, the Judases/L.A. Lodgers — not surviving their NFL Wild Card playoff game this evening in New England.

As Bill Parcells once said: “You are what your record says you are.” And the Patriots are 14-3, champions of the AFC East. The Judases (somehow) are 11-6, runners-up in the AFC West.

And plus — big plus — although it hasn’t been so pronounced during Jim Harbaugh’s coaching tenure, “Chargering” is always lurking in the shadows.

And it is one toxic poison. We will see if Dr. Jim has the antidote, despite a lab that has basically been demolished.

But Parcells is full of it. These teams are not what their record says they are.

The Patriots had a 1-2 record against winning teams. They played nine games vs. bottom-12 defenses. What they get Sunday night is far from that, more than likely the best D they’ve played.

The Judases, minus their two Pro Bowl tackles, have had the worst offensive line in The League, constantly bailed out by bruised and battered (but not broken) quarterback Justin Herbert, who I’m now convinced should be MVP.

Herbert won’t win it. The MVP will either go to Patriots quarterback Drake Maye or Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Herbert played behind 32 different offensive line combinations, thus rated 32nd. He missed the final game and was sacked 54 times, most in football. He did not have a player gain 800 yards from scrimmage.

When underdog by 3½-plus, Herbert is 13-2 for his career. The oddsboys basically are telling us that, with three points given for home field, the Pats are but a half-point favorite. The fact that this is an 8 p.m. start in Foxboro gives the visitors a better time advantage than West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast normally get.

Herbert, with 30-plus offensive line combinations — the lowest-rated O line in the NFL — has broken his left hand and been hit nearly 130 times. Yet he gets by. And he rested last week.

Herbert, and a fine defense, are the reasons why the J’s are here. But the key Sunday could be their running game. Rookie back Omarion Hampton has been nursing a bad ankle. He says he’s ready. If not, it will be up to Kimani Vidal, who has been beyond serviceable.

This team is missing two Pro Bowl-caliber offensive tackles, and the interior O-line isn’t stuff for Canton. So picking the J’s to beat anybody is using a dull knife to carve into a cheap steak.

But it isn’t so much, “Will they win this game?” It’s more, “Can they?”

They can. And if they do, they can go to Denver next week and win there, too.

The AFC is not draconian. Nor is the NFC, for that matter. It’s hard to say any remaining team has gone as far as it can go. …

These NFL announcers have to stop with the “future Hall of Famers.” They all should have to be in that room as observers to see how hard it really is to get in. …

I was almost tired of talking about officials. Then came the Tampa Bay-Carolina game. How could fans remain in the stadium with that stink? …

Tackling? What tackling? It’s awful. …

Too many people overrate the Ravens. So do the Ravens. …

John Harbaugh will make $50,000 a day the next few years to not coach Baltimore. …

It’s hard to imagine John Harbaugh going to a rebuild with a question mark at quarterback. Why the grief? …

As full of it as he is, it’s amazing Cris Collinsworth can walk around without help from a wheelbarrow. …

Tony Romo’s fastball was much more lively before he was told by CBS producers to cut back on predicting plays, that it wasn’t his thing. It’s what made him special. It was his thing. Not so special anymore. It’s telling Dickens not to write after “The Pickwick Papers.” …

The Wall Street Journal reported that one year Romo was right on his predictions 68% of the time. Which is uncanny. …

Last week, the four AFC West teams failed to score an offensive touchdown. …

In 2026, the Raiders will spend $50 million on head coaches they have fired. Pete Carroll was never given the chance to show his greatest skill, college and pro — screwing up a championship game. …

Garrett Wilson missed 10 games for the Jets and yet still led them in receiving yards. All of 395. This kind of crap shouldn’t be possible. …

Nor should the Jets play 17 games without procuring an interception. No bad throws? No tips? What the hell is that all about? NFL low is too low for snakes. …

The Cowboys will be working with yet another defensive coordinator. Does Jerry Jones ever think: “Hey, maybe it’s me? I’m GM. I get the players.” Obviously not. …

Jerry says his goal is to retire as the owner with the most Super Bowl wins. He has three, zero in 30 years. Is he rehiring Jimmy Johnson? …

Alabama QB Ty Simpson has declared for the draft. I’ve watched him plenty. I don’t get it. I’m missing something. …

Matt Campbell has brought 19 players through the Iowa State portal with him to Penn State. The Cyclones finished 8-4 in the Big 12. Big (Ten) things await the Nittanies. …

Curt Cignetti to the Raiders? Indiana has better players than Vegas. …

USC’s Lincoln Riley has had the No. 1 recruiting class and has done extremely well in the portal. One more mediocre year and he’s signing up for a movie extra — and Hollywood, like so many other things in California, isn’t exactly entering its golden era. …

We’ve had Chargering. What are they going to call it in Oregon, Ducking?

Ohio State had the best players.The most accurate quarterback. The most revered receiver. Ryan Day stunk it out. …

The average of Packers’ starters (23.8) is younger than Indiana’s (23.9). …

The ex-girlfriend of Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice is accusing him of eight years of domestic abuse, including when she was pregnant, and that she’s finished protecting him. K.C. makes Shawshank look like Mayberry. …

Miami was better than Ole Miss, but if that’s our best college team, I’m Dostoevsky. And I certainly am not. …

Nobody should be allowed to play seven years of college football. …

Al Michaels, 81, returns next year to call Prime NFL games. I hope he’s doing them when he’s 2,000. …

That was not a Hail Mary at the end of Miami-Ole Miss. That was pass interference. The Rebs deserved another play. PI should be PI. First quarter or final play. …

Miami gets $3 million in travel expenses for the national championship game. At home. Also gets $20 million to play in it. The ACC does not ration payouts. Wonderful world. …

There’s so much talk about the Ole Miss coaching staff. Do we really need 50 assistants? When the Judases first moved here from L.A., the entire coaching staff was Sid Gillman, Chuck Noll, Al Davis and Joe Madro. The first three are in the Hall of Fame.