Padres Daily: Calculated decision; What’s ahead; O’Hearn’s self-assessment

Good morning from Chicago,

Padres players did not see the past three days as if they were playoff games.

Because it’s not October

“We know who we were playing,” Fernando Tatis Jr. said. “But I don’t think it feels like a playoff series yet.”

Mike Shildt knows the difference too. He has managed in four postseasons.

But he clearly saw in front of him a rapidly shortening runway for his team to try to land a home series in the wild-card round. So he managed yesterday as if it were a playoff game.

You can read in my game story (here) from the Padres’ 6-1 loss to the Mets about how Shildt pulled Randy Vásquez with one out in the third inning and how it didn’t work out as the manager envisioned.

Vásquez had thrown 48 pitches and allowed two runs. The Padres trailed 2-1. Shildt saw it as a turning point and liked the plan he and his coaches had mapped out to finagle a win.

He acknowledged afterward that piecing together 20 outs with his bullpen was not the only math he had done.

There was also the matter of the two games by which the Padres trailed the Dodgers (and really three because the Dodgers hold the tiebreaker by virtue of having won the season series).

“That’s a little bit of the component, as far as the going for it part,” he said. “We’re looking to win our division and we know we’re down in the division.”

The winner of the NL West will host a wild-card series. The second-place team is a virtual lock to be the fifth seed and play on the road in that first round.

Padres officials have considered the calculus of homefield advantage and how poorly the team has fared on the road, especially against good teams.

The Padres’ .627 winning percentage at Petco Park is tied for the sixth-best home record in the major leagues. Their .462 road winning percentage is essentially middle of the pack, but that was largely built on the backs of bad teams.

The two losses to the Mets this week dropped the Padres to 10-24 (.294) on the road against teams that are currently in playoff position. They are 1-11 in their series in playoff teams’ home ballparks and 5-1 in series against playoff teams at Petco Park.

All of that is beyond what the players are thinking about.

Part of Shildt’s job is to think more broadly. That is why he did what he did with Vásquez.

Making the bold decisions are why he got the bigger bucks and a two-year contract extension this past offseason.

He made one Wednesday, pulling Nick Pivetta with a three-run lead and one out shy of completing five innings, and the Padres won.

He made one yesterday, and it blew up on him.

His entirely rational explanation for doing so is in the game story.

What’s ahead

Now, will Shildt treat the entirety of the rest of September as if it is October?

Probably not. But it likely depends on what happens the next couple days.

The Padres will at some point clinch a playoff berth, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. And in the ensuing days, Shildt and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will have to decide whether the pursuit of a division title is worth it or if it is more prudent to line up their starting pitchers for the wild-card series.

The Dodgers beat the Giants last night and are now three games up on the Padres.

So, let’s say the Padres win two of three against the White Sox and the Dodgers win twice more this weekend. That would leave the Padres ostensibly four games back with six to play.

The Dodgers even splitting their games at the Diamondbacks and Mariners next week would clinch the division title regardless of how the Padres fared against the Brewers and Diamondbacks in the season’s final homestand.

As of now, here is what it would have to look like for the Padres to pass the Dodgers:

Shildt indicated a clear awareness of the immensity of the task ahead.

“It leaves us right now 2½ games back with no tie breaker,” he said of yesterday’s loss, speaking before the Dodgers’ game. “That’s the facts. So we just (try) to go get the first win of the series against Chicago and then take care of business from there. That part is no real difference. We’re not going to try any harder or do anything overly different. But clearly we’re in a position where we need to go.”

Sox vibes

The Padres swept their series against the White Sox the past two years.

They lost two of three to the White Sox in 2022, but they learned during a 2-1 loss in the finale of that series, on Oct. 2, that they had clinched a playoff spot.

It will likely take more than one win this time.

Here is what needs to happen in order for the Padres to clinch while in Chicago:

Not what it was

Ryan O’Hearn could not quite put his finger on what is ailing the Padres and why they went from winning 14 of the first 23 games after the trade deadline to losing 14 of their past 23 games.

One thing he was sure of.

“I know I’m playing like s–t,” he said.

O’Hearn struck out in both his trips to the plate yesterday and has three singles in his past 33 at-bats (.091).

His time with the Padres, since being acquired from the Orioles on July 31 along with Ramón Laureano, can be divided into three stretches.

There was the first 2½ weeks when he started just eight of the Padres’ 14 games and hit .172 (5-for-29) with a double and a home run.

There were the next three weeks, in which he started 17 of the team’s 19 games and hit .313 (21-for-67) with three doubles and two homers.

And there has been the past week-and-a-half, during which he has started eight of 10 games and reached base once (on a walk).

“I would love to contribute more,” O’Hearn said. “That eats me up. I’m pissed off at that. But I’m not just sit around and be sad about it. I’m going to try to do something different.”

Tidbits

• The Padres were 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position yesterday and Tuesday. They had gone 28 games without having that few chances with runners in scoring position.
• Tatis was 2-for-4 and scored the Padres’ only run. He is batting .319 (15-for-47) and getting on base at a .389 clip over the past 12 games. His .369 on-base percentage for the season would be the second-highest of his career if he maintains it. That is 10 points lower than his OBP his rookie season in 2019, but he will probably end up with nearly twice as many plate appearances this year.
• Luis Arraez went 1-for-3 yesterday to extend his hitting streak to seven games, during which he is batting .393 (11-for-28).
• The Padres struck out 10 times and did not walk yesterday. It was the first time since June 30 they have had double-digit strikeouts and no walks in a game.
• The Padres’ season-high streak of seven games with a home run ended.
• Ron Marinaccio allowed his first run in six appearances (9⅔ innings) for the Padres when the Mets scored against him in yesterday’s seventh inning.
• Gavin Sheets has maintained since the first day of spring training that he felt like being on a winning team was going to help him, and he had some interesting comments yesterday as he prepared to return to Chicago to face his former team. That story will post this morning on our Padres page.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.