Padres Daily: Costly catch-up games; O’Hearn’s right mindset; the interference call

Good morning,

The Padres have now bracketed the 14-3 run that briefly got them into first place in the National League West with a pair of four-game losing streaks.

They lost two in Miami and two in St. Louis last month before losing just three times in their next 17 games. Now, Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Giants came after three defeats in Los Angeles over the weekend.

You can read in my game story (here) how Nestor Cortes surrendered three home runs in the first inning, the Padres had a home run taken away in the second and Ryan O’Hearn made that matter with a two-run homer in the seventh.

Last night was the third consecutive game in which the Padres could not catch up after going down big in the first inning.

There is plenty of time for this stretch to end up being a blip, hardly remembered in October. Or maybe it will be recalled as the time when the Mets or the Reds or whoever else caught up to the Padres.

They remain slotted in the second of three National League wild-card spots, though their lead over the Mets has shrunk by 50% in the past three days.

The Reds are a game behind the Mets and are two games closer to the Padres than they were on Friday.

There was a positive non-movement on Monday, as the Dodgers lost in Colorado, keeping the Padres two games behind them in the NL West.

The Padres’ playoff chances dropped nearly two points last night, to 95.8%, according to FanGraphs.

Here is the reality: They have to go 21-16 to finish with 90 wins. They have the easiest remaining schedule in the National League, according to FanGraphs.

So it is your choice. You can either breathe easy or brace yourself for what would be a fairly epic collapse.

FanGraphs projects 87 wins being good enough to earn the final NL playoff spot.

Just more than 75% (54) of the 71 teams to win exactly 69 of their first 125 games in a 162-game season between 1961 and 2024 finished with at least 87 wins.

Left out, right mindset

I wrote (here) in my pregame notebook yesterday about O’Hearn being left out against left-handed starters, as he was yesterday with Robbie Ray on the mound for the Giants.

O’Hearn then went out and blasted a pinch-hit, two-run homer off Ray in the seventh inning, which only stoked the debate over whether O’Hearn should get more starts against lefties.

“He’s played against lefties,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said when asked if the homer could help lead to more starts for O’Hearn against left-handers. “… I mean, I don’t know how to answer your question. He’s getting a lot of opportunities and at-bats. We have other guys that are doing it too. He’s getting a lot of at-bats. I don’t know what else to say. He’s basically an everyday guy, but other guys play occasionally too.”

Let’s parse that.

O’Hearn started 11 of the 31 games in which the Orioles faced a left-handed starter. He has not started any of the five times the Padres have faced a lefty since he arrived at the trade deadline.

He has started nine of the 11 games against right-handers and has appeared in all five games started by lefties.

He started Aug. 6 in Arizona and hit a game-tying home run when he was left in to face left-hander Kyle Backhus in the ninth inning. He was left in Sunday to face left-handed reliever Anthony Banda and hit an RBI double in the sixth inning.

O’Hearn is 4-for-5 with two homers, two doubles and a walk against lefties and 3-for-30 (all singles) with five walks against righties since joining the Padres.

Here are his splits for the season:

My afternoon story explained the reasoning behind O’Hearn sitting being that there essentially was not a place for him with Manny Machado getting a DH day and Shildt preferring Bryce Johnson’s defense in the outfield with Merrill out.

“I think there are so many good players on this team,” O’Hearn said after the game. “Every guy on the team is more than capable of impacting the game in a big way. And, you know, I haven’t been here all year. These guys have grinded together all year. So when you come over, it’s like, ‘Hey, how can I fit in and you do what you’re told?’”

Asked about his playing time, O’Hearn replied: “That’s above my pay grade, out of my control. I’m here to help out wherever I’m needed. I consider myself a team guy for sure, and I want to win with this team. And whatever they need me to do, that’s what I’m gonna do.”

O’Hearn, who is due to be a free agent after this season, spoke last week after a 2-for-5 day in San Francisco about the change going from the last-place Orioles to a team battling for first place.

“My mindset shifts from worrying more about my numbers and free agency coming up and things like that over the last couple of weeks to when I get here it’s more about, you know, ‘How can I help the team win?’” he said. “And that’s such a cliche statement. It’s true, whether it’s a sacrifice, working a walk, pinch-hitting, whatever it may be. I think ultimately that’s good for everybody.

“I would say, yes, it’s more fun playing on a team that’s playing meaningful baseball this late into the season. … You still want to perform and have good numbers and go to free agency and get paid and all that stuff. But I think when you get kind of consumed and lost in the competitive nature of a team trying to win games, trying to win a division, trying to win a World Series, things like that, the numbers aspect is going to work itself out.”

Maybe it was

As incredulous as Shildt remained after the game and for as many people adamant that they saw it the same as Shildt did, it is not preposterous to think replay official Mark Wegner was correct to overturn Xander Bogaerts’ home run.

Wegner was the umpire in New York who, after reviewing video, made the judgment that a spectator interfered with Giants left fielder Heliot Ramos’ ability to catch Bogaerts’ fly ball that landed in the first row of seats.

Umps ruled fan interference in this play, calling Xander Bogaerts out after initially having hit a home run pic.twitter.com/CwBGveJo1g

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 19, 2025

“If you can find an angle where a fan touched the baseball, I’d like to see,” Shildt said. “The description from the league was that it was clear that the fielder was impeded to make a play. The spectator does not have to touch the baseball, so we understand that. But based on the angle and where the guy was, he was elevated above the fence, the ball was hit with a ton of loft on it. It’s coming right down. There was no clear evidence that that fan impeded his ability to make a play, created a difference in how he moved, his actions, went over the fence. None of it was clear. But somehow, in the explanation, it was clear. … Well, I’d like to see an angle that makes it clear, because I’ve yet to see it. I just had eight innings to watch it, and we lost by a run.”

All that is logical.

It is debatable whether Ramos would have caught that ball anyway. The ball went in and out of his glove, which never crossed over the wall.

The rule on fan interference states:

No interference shall be allowed when a fielder reaches over a fence, railing, rope or into a stand to catch a ball. He does so at his own risk. However, should a spectator reach out on the playing field side of such fence, railing or rope, and plainly prevent the fielder from catching the ball, then the batsman should be called out for the spectator’s interference. 

Where Shildt’s argument has the most merit is in the interpretation of “plainly.”

But the fan’s arms did appear to cross into the field of play, and the angle Shildt asked for looks like it exists.

It looks like the ball grazed the arm of the fan, causing its path to change slightly.

That’s my best guess. pic.twitter.com/So2JGiMXNZ

— Darnay Tripp (@DarnayTripp) August 19, 2025

He knew it

Bogaerts went through a large portion of this season hitting a lot of balls very hard with relatively little to show for it.

From the start of the season through June 18, his .469 batting average on balls put in play at 100 mph or greater was 105 points lower than the league average.

So even without seeing a replay, Bogaerts was immediately pretty sure his home run was going to get taken away

“Yeah, 90%,” he said. “Just knowing some of my luck. … It was my gut feeling.”

Changing it up

Cortes essentially started over after his disastrous start, and he almost made it through six innings without allowing another run.

“I just pitched against them last week,” said Cortes, who was pulled with two outs in the sixth. “It’s basically on me for not adjusting to that. I think after the three homers and the double that I gave up (in the first inning), everything went pretty well. … I’ve just got to do a better job of adjusting earlier in the game.”

Cortes, who allowed one run in 4⅔ innings in San Francisco last Tuesday, had a similar attack plan last night. And the Giants were clearly ready for it.

For one thing, Cortes threw his changeup 21 times in the final 4⅔ innings last night after not throwing one changeup in the first. He threw just 11 changeups against the Giants in his previous start.

From behind

Dylan Cease put the Padres in a 3-0 hole in the first inning of what ended up a 6-0 loss on Saturday.

The Padres were down even bigger the next two games and then fought back.

After Yu Darvish allowed four runs in the first inning Sunday, the Padres tied the game 4-4 in the top of the eighth inning before losing 5-4 on Mookie Betts’ homer in the bottom of the eighth.

And the three unearned runs in the seventh inning last night made for a second straight loss by the slimmest of margins.

“Three days in a row with crooked numbers early, and we have not been able to scratch and claw  our way out of it,” Shildt said. “Even though we’re fighting like crazy.”

Just 3.6% of victories in the major leagues this season have come in games in which the winning team trailed by four or more runs. Just 8.9% of victories have come when the winning team trailed by three or more runs.

Top down

For just the second time in 16 games since the trade deadline, the players who began the night batting in the bottom three spots in the order were hitless.

The two players who pinch-hit in those spots got hits, including the homer by O’Hearn.

Here are the numbers for the top six and bottom three spots in the order since the trade deadline:

Tidbits

• O’Hearn was pinch-hitting for Jake Cronenworth, whose right arm remained swollen following the game after he was hit just above the elbow by a pitch in the fifth inning. Cronenworth played two more innings in the field but could not fully straighten his arm. He was hopeful he will be able to play no later than tomorrow.
• Cronenworth has been hit by a team-high 12 pitches this season, his most since a career-high 16 in 2022. Every time he is hit, he adds to what is likely already an unbreakable franchise record. He has been hit 61 times in his career. The next-closest active Padres player is Tatis, who has been hit 28 times.
• Wandy Peralta’s scoreless inning last night lowered his ERA to 1.08 over his past 17 appearances (16⅔ innings).
• Mason Miller’s scoreless ninth inning included one pitch at 102.2 mph and another at 102. Miller has thrown 26 of the 41 pitches clocked at 102 mph or faster by Padres pitchers since 2008 (the first year StatCast tracked pitch velocity). Miller has thrown a total of 49 fastballs since joining the Padres.
• Three of Bogaerts’ past four hits are doubles.
• Machado was 1-for-4 last night and is batting .167 (7-for-42) over the past 11 games.
• When Ramos and Rafael Devers led off last night’s game with home runs, the Padres became the last MLB team to surrender back-to-back home runs this season. And last night was just the second time the Giants had hit back-to-back homers. The first time was on Sunday against the Rays.
• The 124 home runs the Padres have allowed is tied for fourth fewest in the major leagues. They still have been out-homered by 18, as their offense ranks second-to-last in home runs.
• My pregame notebook also touched on Merrill’s status, Michael King’s bullpen session and Freddy Fermin’s playing time.
• The Padres have lost their past three one-run games and are 25-19 overall in one-run games. That ranks seventh in MLB.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.