Padres Daily: Length matters; Cease’s mix; Fermin fits in; Joe throws

Good morning from Phoenix,

Yesterday felt different. It looked different.

Even after three innings and five fruitless at-bats with runners in scoring position, the Padres did not seem hopeless.

That might seem like a silly thing to insinuate — that a team would be in a seemingly hopeless situation with six innings to play in a tie game. But then, not so ridiculous if you watched the Padres play from mid-May to the start of July.

Now, the hope lived yesterday in part because they were playing the Cardinals.

While wins come in all shapes and sizes, what the Padres did yesterday in wasting the opportunities afforded by their first two batters reaching base in each of the first three innings is not a pattern they want to follow too often.

But it is important for them to know they can.

It isn’t that they had not ever been a team that could score runs in bunches or rebound midgame. It’s just that they went a good portion of this season not being that team — and not at all looking like they could.

“It’s finding ways to score in multiple situations, instead of just losing the first one and not going after it again,” Jackson Merrill said. “That’s kind of where we’re getting better. We’re putting it behind us a little more.”

You can read in my game story (here) how the Padres hit all through the lineup and pulled away in the middle of yesterday’s game and added on late before finishing off a 7-3 victory.

“Shoot, one through nine,” Jake Cronenworth said. “It’s nine guys. It’s a tough lineup to get through.”

It seems like it might actually be.

What the Padres did in turning around the game isn’t just a product of the acquisitions made at Thursday’s trade deadline.

Most of the damage yesterday was done by players who have been Padres all season. And the Padres have been hitting far better for going on a month and generally scoring more in the 2½ weeks since the All-Star break. Yesterday was the seventh time in 16 games they scored at least seven runs.

But it does seem they might have finally attained legitimate length in their lineup by adding Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin.

And Cronenworth, whose two-run homer in the fourth inning started the Padres’ scoring, might be the best illustration of that length.

He hit eighth the past two days. He had hit there sporadically before Laureano and O’Hearn arrived. But he was mostly seventh or higher this season. He hit mostly in the middle of the order last season, and had hit eighth four times in his career before doing so June 23.

Laureano, who got on base before Cronenworth’s home run and later hit a solo homer, is batting seventh. O’Hearn, who was 1-for-4 yesterday, is batting sixth. Fermin, who was 2-for-3, has been ninth the past two days and figures to stay there when he starts, as Padres catchers mostly have this season.

The addition of the right-handed-hitting Laureano, who is hitting righties better than lefties this season, and the left-handed-hitting O’Hearn also allows Mike Shildt to stack his lineup left-right throughout.

“A little more balance to the lineup,” Shildt said. “You know, where … there’s not really a comfortable lane for any (pitcher). And at the moment, it suits Jake at eight. But Jake’s going to take good at bats and win, regardless of where you put him.”

With O’Hearn and Laureano, the Padres have above-average hitters in the first eight spots in their lineup.

That claim is made on the basis of wRC+, a valued metric that quantifies run creation. A wRC+ of 100 is considered an average MLB hitter. A wRC+ of 110 means that player is 10% better than average.

Eight players in their regular lineup with a wRC+ of 100 or above is something just the Brewers, Cubs and Mariners have this season.

Cease mixes it up

Fermin has participated in four series in his career in which his team has faced Dylan Cease. But he had never been anywhere near the plate while Cease was in the game.

“I’ve seen him from the dugout,” Fermin, who has never faced Cease, said yesterday after catching him for the first time. “And some guys have said, ‘Man, he’s too nasty for Freddy.’ After catching him today, I really like what his command is, what he throws out there. He’s just a really complete pitcher, and I really can’t wait to catch him next time and see what he’s got.”

Fermin pretty much saw it all yesterday.

Cease is back to being more than essentially a two-pitch pitcher.

In his first start since surviving the trade deadline still with the Padres, Cease was close to as dominant as he has been all year while varying his pitch mix for the second straight start.

By his 11th pitch of the game, he had thrown five different types of pitches. He had never thrown five types of pitches in the first inning this season.

He had thrown eight curveballs by the end of the third inning, the second most he had thrown that early in a game this season.

The significance of that is the curve working means Cease is in a good spot mechanically. He threw a total of 14 curveballs yesterday and has thrown the pitch 35 times in the past two games after throwing it just 37 times in the six games before that.

He threw his sweeper a season-high seven times yesterday.

His four-seam fastball and slider usage totaled 68%. He used those pitches 68% of the time in his previous start as well.

In every one of the 18 starts before that, he used those two pitches at least 80% of the time. In 10 of those 18 starts, he used the fastball and slider at least 90% of the time. Those were the pitches he felt comfortable with. And for good reason. They are among the most effevtive anyone throws. But using them so heavily also made him predictable.

“The more I mix and throw multiple pitches for strikes, the easier my life is,” Cease said yesterday. “So once I get into a rhythm with that, I become way harder to hit. … I mean, my curveballs were really good lately. So it’s like, hey, if that’s there, we can throw that early or use it to put away. And then usually when my curveball is there, that means I’m syncing up mechanically. And usually everything else is right. … When I’m powering the curveball, I feel like I’m pretty close to unhittable.”

Yesterday was the third time this season Cease did not allow a run. He has gone more than 5⅓ innings in just one of those three games after throwing at least six scoreless innings in nine starts last season.

His issue yesterday was a 28-pitch first inning.

“Then you saw him go into, really, the best version of Dylan, the second through the fifth,” Shildt said.

He completed those innings in a total of 62 pitches, which is a little more than 15 pitches per inning. That is the kind of pace that lets a pitcher go for seven innings.

“It’s very encouraging,” Shildt said. “We’re very excited.”

Ceasezilla

Calling Cease the right-handed Blake Snell is simplifying things too much.

But they do both have sizzling stuff that gets a lot of swing and miss, and both suffer from occasional command issues. They both get a lot of strikeouts and both tend to throw a lot of pitches.

And there is the fact that Cease yesterday achieved his 13th career game in which he went at least five scoreless innings while allowing no more than one hit. That moved him out of a tie with Snell for most in MLB since the start of the 2019 season. (Third on the list, with eight such games, is Nick Pivetta.)

This was the first of Cease’s 13 such games in which he did not go at least six innings.

Yesterday was also Cease’s 13th career game in which he had at least nine strikeouts in a game in which he did not finish six innings. That, too, is most in the majors since 2019. Snell is tied for seventh.

Just a reminder

What happened in the ninth inning yesterday was not so much troubling as revealing.

What it did was underscore the fragility of a bullpen. Even a Super Bullpen.

Adrian Morejón, pitching on four days’ rest and for just the sixth time in three weeks, and working with more than a two-run lead for the first time since June 21, kept leaving sinkers up in the zone. Those are generally going to get hit, and they were.

He allowed two singles, walked a batter and then allowed two more singles without getting an out before being replaced by Robert Suarez.

Suarez allowed a sacrifice fly among his three outs to account for the final margin.

The Padres have a magnificent bullpen. The stats bore that out before they acquired Mason Miller.

But their pitchers are human beings.

And over the past two games, two of their higher-leverage relievers have been charged with three runs.

Fits right in

Fermin laid down his fifth bunt hit of the season in yesterday’s third inning.

“It’s part of my game,” Fermin said. “… I feel like I have pretty good speed as well. So I feel like, if I can add that to my game, I think it’s going to contribute a long way.”

It will on the Padres.

Shildt loves the bunt.

The Padres lead the major leagues with 32 sacrifice bunts and 47 total bunts put in play (eight hits, seven outs).

Joe on the go

Joe Musgrove reported feeling “awesome” a day after his first all-out bullpen on Saturday.

Musgrove, who is aiming to be ready for the postseason, is working back from Tommy John surgery.

Some teammates, including multiple pitchers and Merrill were on hand to witness the all-fastball session.

“It feels good for me to be able to show them that I’ve been working and that I’m getting closer and getting ready,” Musgrove said yesterday morning. “I know that there’s a lot of things that can happen between now and the playoffs that could derail the plan, but with how I felt yesterday, I think I’m optimistic about the chance to pitch this year – or at least a chance to be ready to pitch.”

Fewer than two-dozen big-leaguers have come back to pitch within a year of their surgery, and a return in the playoffs would be right around that mark for Musgrove.

His beginning to throw close to all-out coincided with the arrival of six new teammates at the trade deadline. The circumstances only served to to increase his restlessness.

“I think especially with the additions of the new guys, I want to be part of this really bad,” Musgrove said. ”I feel like we have a good chance to go deep into this thing and win it all. And if we get to that point, I want to be able to say that I contributed in some fashion, whether it’s one out or an inning or a start, whatever it is, I would love to get out there and play. So a little antsy with that. But again, trying to, you know, rein myself in and stay to the process and keep progressing.”

The plan is to throw two bullpens a week, with one on Tuesday replicating a between-starts session and the one on Saturdays being more high-intensity. The initial plan drawn up by Dr. Keith Meister, who performed Musgrove’s elbow reconstruction, calls for 10 weeks of bullpens before moving to games.

“Now that we’re into bullpens and I’m starting to throw more regularly, there’s a little more freedom in there,” Musgrove said. “Even Meister himself told me that, you know, be very careful on the front end (and) on the back end, that’s kind of where you can make up a little bit. … The next couple weeks is just going to be listening to the body and allowing myself to be what I feel comfortable with.

“I feel pretty close. I‘ve got a lot of work, a long ways to go, a lot of intensity to add to it, which obviously is going to bring more soreness and maybe bring some issues up. But up to this point, it’s been really good. I’ve had bad days here and there, but nothing that has stuck around for too long, nothing that has lingered and prohibited us from throwing.”

Tidbits

• Michael King threw 61 pitches over 3⅓ innings in his first rehab start yesterday. How he feels today will be the important part. Pitching for Triple-A El Paso at Round Rock, Texas, King allowed six runs on four hits (two home runs) while walking one and striking out five. His fastball velocity appeared to be on par with his average. King is building up his arm strength and endurance after missing the past 2½ months with a nerve impingement near his shoulder.
• The Padres’ two new left-handed starters will make their debut with the team here against the Diamondbacks. JP Sears start tonight, Yu Darvish starts tomorrow, and Nestor Cortes will pitch his first game for the Padres on Wednesday. You can read my story (here) from yesterday morning about Cortes’ arrival and Randy Vásquez being optioned.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. doubled and walked twice yesterday. His 63 walks this season are a career high, one more than he had in 2021. Tatis is batting .264 with a .367 on-base percentage. The latter number ranks 11th in the National League.
• Merrill drove in three runs with his bases-loaded triple in the seventh inning, giving him 11 RBIs in the past seven games. He has at least one RBI in five consecutive games, the longest active streak in the majors.
• Luis Arraez extended his hitting streak to a career-high 16 games by going 1-for-5. He is batting .400 (26-for-65) during the streak.
• Estrada’s 54th appearance ties him with the Reds’ Scott Barlow for second in the major leagues behind the Reds’ Tony Santillan (55). Adam and Morejón have pitched in 53 games. Wandy Peralta has pitched 50 times and Suarez 49. No other team has more than three relievers who have made at least 49 appearances.
• The Padres’ four-run seventh inning was their fifth four-run inning in their past seven games. They scored at least that many runs in an inning in five of their previous 48 games.
• The Padres’ past four victories have all been decided by at least three runs. That is the first time that has happened since the season’s fourth through seventh games.
• The Padres’ plus-4 run differential on July 9 was the lowest among any team with a winning record. They are at plus-36 now, 12th among the 15 teams with a winning record.
• The Padres won the season series against the Cardinals 4-3. They have not lost any of the seven season series they have completed against National League teams. (They have won four and tied three.)
• The Padres have opened a 4½-game lead in the race for the NL’s final wild-card spot. They are closer to the No.5 seed than they have been since June 26.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.