Padres Daily: Loss of Jason Adam a big blow, makes it more urgent that starters step up

Good morning,

The Padres took a hit last night that was much deeper than a single loss or even a sixth loss in eight games.

This one might leave a mark.

Jason Adam was lost for the season when he suffered a ruptured quad tendon in his left leg.

You can read in my game story (here) what happened in the seventh inning of the Padres’ 4-3 loss to the Orioles.

Losing one of the best members of one of the best bullpens in baseball is seismic. The Padres were focused on something more personal in the immediate aftermath.

“I feel for Jason,” Jake Cronenworth said. “I mean, not just important to this team, but one of, if not the best, human I’ve ever been around. What he’s been through and to put himself in the positions he’s been — now being one of the best relievers in baseball and grinding his way through and being 34 and finding his home, I feel for him and his family and obviously pray for a speedy recovery.”

That was the mood and general consensus in the clubhouse, which was also part of the game story.

And, yes, lingering in the midst of the empathy was the knowledge that this was a big blow to the portion of the team that was widely seen as the difference maker come October.

“It seems like he pitches every day,” Dylan Cease said. “He’s been amazing.”

Adam’s 65 appearances are tied for fifth most among major league relievers. His 1.93 ERA is seventh best among relievers with at least 50 appearances. And his 29 holds are tied for second.

Adam was quoted in the game story saying the Padres bullpen is deep enough to withstand his absence.

“I told A.J. I’m really glad you went out and got Mason (Miller),” Adam said of his phone conversation with Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

And maybe Adam is right. The Padres can still stack up against most bullpens in the major leagues.

But this takes away some flexibility manager Mike Shildt had to shorten some games and lessens the comfortability he had to chase victories.

With five high-leverage relievers, he always had what seemed like one extra guy to work with.

Losing one of their best relievers is concerning for the postseason.

But as we have talked about so much lately, the bullpen is being leaned on too much right now.

Starting pitchers have covered 24 innings in the past seven games.

Now, Sunday was a designed bullpen game. But that still works out to the team’s actual members of the starting rotation averaging four innings per start over the past week.

The culprit last night was Cease, who allowed two runs and threw 91 pitches in four innings.

It was the fifth time this season he did not get to the fifth inning and the 10th time this season he did not make it through five. He has allowed at least two runs in four consecutive starts and gone five innings in just one of those.

Yesterday was the fourth time in the past seven games and 12th time in the past 25 games that the Padres’ starting pitcher allowed multiple runs in the first four innings.

“It’s clearly a concern,” Shildt said. “We have a deep bullpen, a talented bullpen. But the way the game is built — and I know it’s morphing into shortening the game — over 162 games, starters are going to have to carry a lion’s share of the innings. We just haven’t been able to get that consistently, which is affecting (the results).”

Luis Rises

Luis Arraez reached 1,000 hits in his career last night.

“I work hard for this,” Arraez said. “Finally, I did it.”

His year of bounty and drought continued, as he collected his 16th three-hit game. That is third most in the major leagues. He also has 40 games with no hits, which is two off his career high set in 2021.

Last night’s output raised his batting average three points to .285, which is nine points off his career low set in 2021.

Arraez, who led the American League in average in 202 and the National League in average the past two seasons, ranks second in the National League with 153 hits this season but is 10th in batting average.

Matter of time

The Padres lost ground to the teams they are chasing and saw their cushion shrink over the teams chasing them. The Cubs, Mets, Reds and Giants won. The Dodgers did not play.

The Padres’ playoff chances fell below 99% for the first time in more than a week. FanGraphs now pegs their postseason probability at 98.7%.

To put in perspective how things would have to go for the Padres to not make the postseason: Even if they went 10-14 the rest of the way, the Reds would have to win at least 16 of their remaining 24 games and/or the Giants would have to win at least 18 of their remaining 24 games to catch them.

The Padres won the season series against the Giants. The Reds and Padres play three games at Petco Park starting next Monday, so we can’t yet know how a tiebreaker between those two teams or all three teams would play out.

Tidbits

• You can read in Jeff Sanders’ notebook (here) about the return of Jackson Merrill (sort of) and why Fernando Tatis Jr. was scratched from the lineup and unavailable to pinch-hit last  night. Also in that story is word on the Padres’ backup plan if something were to happen to one of their catchers.
• The seven-game hitting streaks of Gavin Sheets and Cronenworth ended last night, though both did draw walks and score in the second inning. So they extended their on-base streaks to eight games.
• Jose Iglesias went 2-4 in his first game as the fill-in shortstop after Xander Bogaerts went on the injured list. He is 0-for-13 in three games since.
• Bryce Johnson started in center field last night and went 2-for-4. He is batting .345 (20-for-58) since being called up in mid-June.

All right, that’s it for me. It has been a long couple days that have melted into one day. I have had just a couple two-hour naps since waking up Sunday morning in Minneapolis. (ThAAt is thAAnks in lAArge pAArt to my AAirline, which I’m too clAAssy to cAAll out by nAAme.)

Talk to you tomorrow.