Padres Daily: Still matters; it takes everyone; power surge; Vásquez in the discussion

Good morning,

Yesterday could not have gone better for the Padres.

They won.

The Dodgers lost.

The Cubs lost.

That means the Padres are still playing games of consequence, games that could enhance their chances of postseason success.

My game story (here) from last night’s 7-0 victory over the Brewers focused on the balancing act the Padres embarked on after clinching a playoff berth the day before.

The balance they are attempting to achieve is between trying to improve their standing and trying to rest players as much as possible in preparation for the postseason.

It will be interesting to see going forward how hard they chase a home playoff series.

Because if today goes like yesterday — with the Padres winning plus the Cubs and Dodgers losing — it could make the final weekend sensationally tense.

The Padres still need a lot to go right to get a home series next week instead of heading to Chicago.

They would host the No.6 seed (the Mets, Reds or Diamondbacks) if they win the National League West and are the No.3 seed. They would host the Cubs if they are the No.4 seed.

The difference between home and road performance for the Padres is drastic.

The Padres trail the Dodgers and Cubs by 1½ games, though they hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs (intradivision record) and lose the tiebreaker with the Dodgers (head-to-head record).

The Cubs have lost five straight, during which time the Padres have gained 3½ games on them.

Here is what has to happen for the Padres to pass them:

The Dodgers are now 10-10 in September, which has allowed the Padres (11-10) to gain a half-game on them over the course of the month.

Depending on the viewpoint, the Dodgers have allowed the Padres to stick around or the Padres have failed to take advantage of the Dodgers not playing well.

That has changed the past few days. The Dodgers lost Sunday, were off Monday and lost yesterday. The Padres won all three days. The last time they had won on the same day the Dodgers lost was Sept. 6.

Here is what has to happen for the Padres to pass them:

Whoever

Most people saw the lineup the Padres put forth yesterday — without Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado or Jackson Merrill — and thought they had given up.

And then the Padres scored seven runs, all coming from three home runs. The Padres had not scored that many runs in a game with every run driven in by a homer this season. They just don’t do that.

Mike Shildt could not have made it any clearer that they would continue to play to win even as they prioritized resting their regulars.

We just get caught up in names, because those names are important. Over a sustained stretch, the Padres need those names to perform.

They have not won more in September in large part because Machado has — and I am only using his word here — sucked.

They have won more the past two weeks than they did the previous two weeks in part because Merrill has a 1.091 OPS over his past 16 games.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has arguably been the Padres’ most valuable position player this season. They are 49-29 when their lead-off hitter reaches base at least twice and 38-42 when he does not.

But this is without a doubt the Padres’ most balanced team among the four that have advanced to the postseason over the past six years.

Machado and Tatis carried the 2020 team into the playoffs. Machado did the lifting practically alone at the end of ‘22. Merrill helped him in the second half of ‘24.

Here are the numbers for the 11 Padres players who have played most frequently since Aug. 1:

Vásquez’s role

Have we been overlooking Randy Vásquez? Have the Padres been overlooking Randy Vásquez?

If so, no one should be any longer.

Vasquez last night held the Brewers to one hit and walked two batters over seven scoreless innings.

It was the first time in 25 starts this season (and in 51 career starts) that he finished seven innings and the first time he did so while not allowing a run.

Vásquez’s outing last night was the Padres’ first quality start in nine games. He has three of the Padres’ six quality starts over their past 27 games.

It seems he is no longer the traffic cop.

Here are his numbers since being recalled on Sept. 6 compared to his first 22 games this season:

Vásquez has apparently learned and accepted who he is, a guy who thrives when he pitches to soft contact. And he has more confidence in that guy than he did when he was nibbling around the strike zone last season and earlier this season.

“Randy believes in himself,” pitching coach Ruben Niebla said recently. “His stuff has gotten better. And not only better, his stuff has been in zone better.”

Vásquez, who has been optioned twice this season, may have worked himself into a potential postseason start. The Padres might have him be available in the bullpen for the wild-card series and possibly the NL Division Series with the idea he could start in a seven-game series if needed.

“It’s a conversation for the group,” Shildt said last night when asked about Vásquez’s role. “… I think (he is in) the conversation for sure. How it shakes out, time will tell. Decisions that the organization … will weigh in on and make.”

By that, Shildt meant discussions among himself, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and pitching coach Ruben Niebla with input from others, including the analytics department.

Shildt already said Nick Pivetta almost certainly will start Game 1 of the wild-card series. Indications from people inside the organization are that the Padres will use tomorrow’s off-day to line up the rest of the rotation for that series.

If that is the case, it could mean Michael King is not starting Friday, which unless he has a truncated outing over the weekend would rule him out for Game 2. That would presumably leave the second game up for grabs between Dylan Cease, who starts today, and Yu Darvish, whose turn in the rotation comes up Saturday, though it is not known if that is when he will start next.

Vásquez is currently in line to start again in Sunday’s season finale.

Power surge

The Padres are slugging more lately.

They were one of six teams without a grand slam before the All-Star break. Ryan O’Hearn’s grand slam last night was their fifth in 61 games since then, most in the major leagues.

Ryan O'Hearn first inning GRAND SLAM pic.twitter.com/a4Pa9yzDBR

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 24, 2025

They had seven three-run homers in their first 127 games. They have three in the 31 games since.

They were averaging 0.88 home runs a game through their first 145 games. They have homered in 11 of their past 13 games and are averaging 1.46 homers per game over that span.

Yesterday was the seventh time in their past 32 games they hit at least three home runs. They hit three or more homers in five of their first 126 games.

It was “out” of here

More rare than a Luis Arraez home run is the home run Arraez hit last night.

The 323-foot fly ball came down and hit the pole on the black line that delineates between a ball being out of the park or in play.

This really is amazing. pic.twitter.com/rUMJtLTpIb

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 24, 2025

The only shorter home runs hit at Petco Park in at least the past 11 seasons (the StatCast era) were a pair of inside-the-park homers.

It was the second time this season Arraez has hit the right field foul pole. His home run on July 28 struck the wide mesh-like portion that juts out on the fair side of the pole.

At 89.8 mph off the bat, yesterday’s “blast” was the fifth-lowest exit velocity by any home run hit at Petco Park since at least 2015, the lowest exit velocity on a home run in Arraez’s career and the third lowest in the major leagues this season.

“I don’t know,” Arraez said when asked how it felt to hit his ninth home run of the season. “I hit it 89.9, I think. But thank God it went out. I don’t know if it went out, since it hit the pole.”

The rarity of Arraez’s home runs is actually not what it used to be. His total this season is one off his career high set in 2023.

Still, his average of one home run every 89.8 at-bats since the start of his career is the third-lowest rate among qualifying batters (2,000 plate appearances) since 2019.

Bogaerts returns

You can read in Jeff Sanders’ game preview (here) from yesterday about how Xander Bogaerts was feeling as he prepared to play in a game for the first time since fracturing a bone when he fouled a ball off his left foot Aug. 27.

Bogaerts went 0-for-4 last night but made two solid defensive plays.

He is expected to start again today, though both Shildt and Bogaerts said that will depend on how his foot feels this morning.

Jeff’s story also has an update on Tatis, who stayed home a second straight day with flu-like symptoms.

Tidbits

• Major League Baseball announced yesterday that the ABS challenge system will be in place for the 2026 season. Each team will begin a game with two available challenges for ball and strike calls. You can read more details and quotes from Padres players in Sanders’ story (here).
• Yesterday was the Padres’ 17th shutout, one fewer than the Pirates’ MLB-leading total. This was the fourth one started by Vásquez. Nick Pivetta has started five of the shutouts.
• The Padres’ fourth consecutive victory gives them their longest winning streak since they won five straight from Aug. 19 to 23.
• The Padres clinched the season series against the Brewers, whose 95-63 record is best in the major leagues. The previous four games between the team had all been decided by one run.
• Jose Iglesias homered for the second straight game. He now has three homers on the season. This is the fourth time in his 13-year career he has homered in back-to-back games. He had done it most recently in 2020.
• Arraez also singled last night and is batting .347 (17-for-49) over a 12-game hitting streak. It is his second-longest streak of the season and tied for third longest of his career. His season average is up to .288, the highest it has been since Aug. 22 (.289). That is still six points off his previous career low  of .294 in 2021.
• In five games since assessing that he was playing like s–t and claiming he was going to do something about it, O’Hearn has gone 10-for-20 and driven in eight runs.
• Gavin Sheets is batting .120 (6-for-50) over his past 14 games. He has started 15 straight games and 30 of the past 33. His 529 plate appearances are a career high (by 28), as are his 141 games (by two).
• The Padres have gone three games without a double for just the third time this season and the first time since May. They last went four games without a double from May 12-14, 2024.
• Something I would pay money to see and hear: Wil Myers is spending a few days in Arizona working with Padres minor leaguers during the Instructional League. Wil is one of the most earnest, engaging and entertaining players to have played for the Padres in at least the past decade.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.