Padres Daily: The Cease reality; Laureano the big fish; Estrada moves on; Merrill’s progress

by Kevin Acee

Good morning from Seattle,

The standings and the calendar have reached the sweet spot.

We are at the point in the season where it is valid to treat each game as something bigger than just that game.

Even Mike Shildt, who manages games in April with a mind toward them mattering in September, had to acknowledge that.

“They’re all big wins at any point in the year,” he said. “They’re getting more magnified at this point in the year.”

So coming back to win 7-6 over the Mariners last night in a game the Padres at one point led by five runs was certainly big.

The victory kept the Padres a game behind the Dodgers in the National League West. And in the wild-card race, winning last night kept the Padres 3½ games ahead of the Mets and got them a game closer to the Cubs.

There is one-half of one percentage point of a chance the Padres do not make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. The analytics website projects it will take 88 wins to earn the final NL wild-card spot. Of the 59 teams since 1961 to have had 75 victories with 29 games remaining, 51 (86%) finished with at least 88 wins, 46 (78%) finished with at least 89 wins and 39 (66%) finished with at least 90 wins. (FanGraphs also projects the Padres’ remaning schedule as the easiest in the major leagues.)

So it is at this point that thoughts can turn to the postseason as well.

We can look at many things through the lens of what it might portend for those truly enormous games a little more than a month from now.

For instance, when JP Sears allows four runs in 3⅔ innings on Monday, it is taken with a grain of salt because there is no real scenario (outside of disaster) in which he will be starting postseason games for the Padres.

And when the Padres’ No. 6 hitter leads off the sixth inning last night with a double and the No.7 hitter follows with a double and the No.8 hitter with a single and the No.9 hitter with a sacrifice bunt to bring home the go-ahead run, it is easy to see how that kind of lineup depth might come in handy in October.

So then, what to make of Dylan Cease?

He was as good last night as he has been at the start of a game this season. By one measure, he was better.

And then, he did what he has done so often this season.

The reality is that if Michael King is back and throwing well and Yu Darvish continues to trend upward, it is unfathomable as of today that the Padres would give Cease a start if they have to play in the wild-card round. And should they make it to the Division Series, there would seem the only reason to use him would be if they had to because it took thenm three games to win their wild-card series.

The schedule for the NLDS has days off after Game 1, Game 2 and Game 4. That allows for teams to use just three starting pitchers, with the starters for the first two games able to pitch the final two (if necessary) games on regular rest.

It is conceivable that after his final regular season start Cease would not pitch until the NL Championship Series.

Even after watching him combust all season, it remains a difficult to believe Cease would not be in the Padres’ postseason rotation.

My game story (here) pointed out his 10.62 ERA in the fifth inning.

If only that was the real issue.

If last night was the norm and he was always superb at the start before imploding, then you might expect the Padres to start him and be at the ready to back him up with the Padres’ beefed-up bullpen at the first hint of trouble. (And that likely will be the case if the Padres make it to a seven-game series where four starters are needed.)

But last night was not only the first time all season he did not allow a baserunner in the first three innings of a game, it was just the ninth time in his 27 starts he did not allow at least one run in the first three innings. He has allowed multiple runs in the first three innings in 13 starts.

For comparison, Cease made it through the first three innings of a game without allowing a baserunner three times last year, including when he went eight perfect innings before allowing two hits in the ninth against the Astros in September. He did not allow a hit in the first three innings of eight starts in 2024, including in his no-hitter against the Nationals in July.

Heck, he allowed multiple runs in 20 games last season. He has done so in 20 innings this season.

We keep waiting for 2024 Cease. But this is who Cease is in 2025.

It is confounding, since there are innings (even two or three or four) where he seems destined to dominate. His 29.9% strikeout rate is fourth highest in the major leagues.

He has always been mercurial, prone to the big inning. It is just that the excellent innings have far outnumbered the bad ones when he is right.

“I haven’t executed as well this year, as consistent,” he said. “I do look back and I wish there’s things I could redo and some areas of focus I could kind of change. But I don’t know. I really like where I’m at now. I gave up four last start, (four) today. I feel much more dominant than that. I like where my stuff is at. I’ve just got to be a little bit better doing it. I’m not going to get discouraged. Honestly, at this point, I’m just fighting, just battling.”

Cease can still help the Padres get into the playoffs. He can still help them in the playoffs. He is too talented for that to not be possible.

But coming to terms with his place on the team going forward is not just something for fans and the media to do but an exercise the Padres are going through right now.

They have to. That is how everything must be viewed at this point.

Corner piece, big fish

Ramon Laureano, who last night hit a grand slam in the first inning and doubled and scored the deciding run in the sixth inning, is batting .330 with six home runs, two triples and four doubles since being acquired at the trade deadline.

His 1.004 OPS is 13th-highest among any player in his first 24 games with the Padres. Among players the Padres acquired near the trade deadline, only Scott Hairston (1.154) and Milton Bradley (1.094) in 2007 had a higher OPS than Laureano.

Earlier this month, Laureano talked about how being traded once and released multiple times has helped him not be overwhelmed by the circumstances of a new environment.

On Monday, he expanded on why he believes he has hit the ground running with the Padres.

“I think you come with something bigger than getting adjusted, which is we’re here to win,” Laureano said. “I feel that, so I don’t feel any (pressure.) … I’m just a piece in the puzzle, just a fish in the ocean.”

Ramón Laureano robbed a grand slam on Sunday, and he hits one tonight!

A 5-run 1st inning for the @Padres! pic.twitter.com/CbxqUsgaZN

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2025

Lined up

The Padres’ bullpen would seem to be in remarkable shape considering it has worked at least three innings each of the past 12 days and a total of nine innings the past two days.

With a day off tomorrow, the Padres likely have four of their five highest-leverage relievers available for today’s series finale. (Mason Miller is almost certainly down after throwing 30 pitches last night.)

The flexibility owes in part to Shildt not aggressively chasing a victory after the Padres fell behind big Monday.

So last night, when Cease was on the ropes in the fifth inning, Shildt had the freedom to unload the back end of his bullpen with Jason Adam, Adrian Morejón, Mason Miller, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez.

“You have the pieces every day,” Shildt said. “You put the pieces in the best spot you can. … When those guys are available, it’s a great opportunity to be able to manage the game.”

Estrada moves on

After throwing a scoreless eighth inning last night, Estrada explained why he didn’t consider it a rebound performance following his two rough outings against the Dodgers over the weekend.

“Every single baseball player that has ever played this game can say two greatest words: ‘It’s baseball,’” Estrada said.

Then he got philosophical.

“There’s a game the next day,” he said. “It’s another day. Same thing as in life. If you argue with your girlfriend and you take it into the next day, things will get worse. Fix it right then and there. Flush it. Move on. Work on it. The next day is new.”

One thing that was different for Estrada last night was they he threw his split-finger fastball nine times among his 14 pitches.

It was just the third time this season that he threw more splitters than four-seam fastballs. It was the first time he had done so since July 18, a span of 16 games.

After Jorge Polanco led off the eighth inning with a single against Estrada’s four-seamer, Estrada began Dominic Canzone with three straight splitters before striking him out with the four-seamer. He then threw three straight fastballs to J.P. Crawford, who flied out to center field on the last of those, and three more splitters to Cole Young before Young popped up a four-seamer to end the inning.

“Everybody just wants the heater,” Estrada said. “… You learn. Today, I felt good with the split. I have all the trust in the catchers, and it worked out.”

Crawford, Canzone and Young all bat left-handed. Estrada throws his splitter to left-handers almost twice as often as he throws it to righties.

Merrill’s progress

Center fielder Jackson Merrill did his first baseball activity since being shut down Aug. 17 with a bone bruise and sprained left ankle.

He briefly played catch and did light running in the outfield yesterday afternoon and also took some dry swings (no baseball) in the batting cage.

“A little progress,” he said last night.

The Padres believe Merrill can come off the IL during the series against the Twins.

Pitching plans

King will likely take the mound at Target Field this weekend, but it will not be in a game against the Twins. The right-hander, on the injured list with left knee inflammation, is scheduled to throw a bullpen session at T-Mobile Park this morning and will likely pitch a simulated game while the Padres are in Minnesota.

Nestor Cortes and Nick Pivetta are lined up to start against the Twins. It seemed a safe bet after his outing Monday that Sears would not start the other game. And that became a certainty yesterday when he was optioned to Triple-A. Randy Vásquez could be recalled to start this weekend.

Reliever Alek Jacob, who began the season with the Padres and has a 6.39 ERA in two stints with the team this year, was recalled to provide an extra arm in the bullpen until the Padres do recall another starter.

Tidbits

For the first time this season, the same players have hit in the top eight spots in the Padres batting order for the past six games. Only Elias Díaz batting ninth on Sunday instead of Freddy Fermin kept it from being the same nine players starting in those six games.
There are not too many major leaguers hotter than Gavin Sheets over the past two weeks. Sheets was 1-for-3 with the double that began the sixth inning comeback last night, and he is batting .364 (12-for-33) with three home runs and six doubles over his past 12 games. His 1.235 in that span (since Aug. 11) is fourth-highest in the major leagues among players with at least 35 plate appearances.
Ryan O’Hearn was 2-for-4 with a double and a walk last night. He is batting .341 (14-for-41) with two home runs and three doubles over his past 13 games after beginning his time with the Padres with three hits in his first 22 at-bats.
Morejón struck out all three batters he faced last night to run his scoreless streak to 11 innings over his past 10 games. In that span, he has allowed four hits, walked two and struck out 13.
Robert Suarez’s 35th save moved him back into a tie for the MLB lead with the Royals’ Carlos Estévez. Suarez is one save shy of his 2024 total.
Fermin’s sixth-inning bunt on the safety squeeze play that scored Laureano was his fourth sacrifice hit with the Padres, which is tied for third on the team behind Luis Arraez (10) and Martin Maldonado (six). Fermin, who made his Padres debut on Aug. 2, leads the team with three bunt singles.
The Padres were one of six teams without a grand slam before the All-Star break. They lead MLB with three grand slams since then.
After going 0-for-27 with runners in scoring position in their first four games against the Mariners this season, the Padres were 4-for-11 yesterday. They are 27-7 this season when they have at least 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position.
The Padres’ five-run first inning was their 13th time scoring at least that many runs in an inning this season. It was their eighth time doing so in their past 37 games.
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 112 mph double that short-hopped the wall in center field in the first inning was his sixth ball put in play that hard this season. It was his third this month.

Fernando Tatis Jr. made sure to let Julio Rodríguez know after he reached safely on this double pic.twitter.com/Cq9kqn0e2V

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2025