Tom Krasovic: Padres can expect better outcome this time than in 1984

The Chicago Cubs’ victory Saturday over the Cardinals meant the Padres will be at Wrigley Field on Tuesday for the entirety of the teams’ best-of-three Wild Card Series, rather than facing the Cubs in the East Village.

Here’s a Padres-Cubs forecast that seems safe:

Game 1 can’t be as ugly for the Padres as their other Game 1 at Wrigley Field.

“There’s no doubt about that,” cracked former Padres outfielder Kurt Bevacqua on Saturday.

In 1984, appearing in the franchise’s first playoff game to open the best-of-five National League Championship Series, the Padres saw the Cubs hit five home runs and roll. The 13-0 victory set LCS records for the most home runs and the largest margin of victory in a single game.

Dick Williams’ NL West champions had only two hits off Cubs ace and 1984 Cy Young winner Rick Sutcliffe and lost third baseman Graig Nettles to a thumb injury that kept him out of the starting lineup in Game 2.

But Game 2 a day later dished out the more painful setback, a winnable 4-2 decision.

Although the Cubs did a lot right, they continued to catch an inordinate number of breaks. “How long can things keep going your way?” asked Orioles Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver late on the ABC telecast.

Having trailed for part or all 18 innings in Chicago, Williams’ Padres trudged back into the cramped locker room.

They knew that to reach the World Series, it would take winning three consecutive elimination games in Mission Valley.

“We went out of there with our tails between our legs,” said Bevacqua, whose phone number includes 1984. “The Cubs went out of there probably celebrating on the plane, thinking they were going to wrap up things quick.”

In the regular season, the Cubs had four more wins than the Padres. But the Padres had home-field advantage due to a rotational system among divisions.

And that gift seemed to matter. A lot.

“We came back to a stadium full of lunatics that got us all psyched up,” Bevacqua said. “That went hand in hand with the lunatics on our team. And it was magical.”

Vibing off a boisterous crowd of 58,346 attending the first MLB playoff game in San Diego, the Padres parlayed Ed Whitson outpitching Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley, three hits from Tony Gwynn and a home run from Kevin McReynolds into a 7-1 victory in Game 3.

Steve Garvey’s home run off closer Lee Smith – who’d seen Terry Kennedy’s drive gloved against the ivy wall for the last out in Game 2 – decided Game 4.

In Game 5, the Padres rallied against a fatigued Sutcliffe to go ahead. When Hall of Fame closer Goose Gossage locked up the 6-3 win, the partying began inside and outside San Diego’s Jack Murphy Stadium.

This time

This series looks like a toss-up. Though the Cubs’ offense had the better season, showing more consistency, power and depth, the Padres have advantages, too. Their bullpen gets a strong edge. Ace Nick Pivetta had the best season of any starting pitcher on either team.

It appears the Cubs improved their odds Saturday by booking the Wild Card Series for Wrigley Field.

Pivetta, the likely Game 1 starter, shows home-road splits that are broad: a 2.36 ERA at home, compared with a 3.55 ERA on the road. Pivetta’s strikeout knack mitigates the effects of ballpark dimensions, but his fly ball rate is tied for first in MLB at 26 percent above league average, and Wrigley Field tends to play smaller than Petco Park.

Entering Saturday, the Padres were 50-29 at home. On the road, they were 38-43.

If the Padres get past the Cubs, they’d face the Milwaukee Brewers. Pat Murphy’s club will finish with the majors’ best win-loss record. But the Padres play a very similar style, predicated on resourceful offense, efficient defense and power pitching.

As it stands now, the toughest matchup for the Padres would be an NLCS against either the Phillies or the Dodgers. Either of those teams would deserve to be favored, barring major changes in health. The Phillies’ left-handed starting pitching, home run power and lineup dynamics would pose large problems. The Dodgers boast several pitchers capable of four to seven innings of dominance— watch out for Shohei Ohtani — and home run power that’s accentuated in October.

One other thing about the Padres and the Cubs. The Padres hold a health advantage. The Cubs on Saturday shut down their hottest starting pitcher, Cade Horton, to a rib injury suffered when the right-hander coughed while fighting a cold.