Tom Krasovic: Padres should still like playoff odds, even if history shows anything can happen

Fifteen years ago, deep into the baseball season, a Padres executive checked his phone soon after waking up and saw a text message from a colleague:

76-49.

That was the whole text.

The numbers denoted the Padres’ win-loss record that Thursday morning.

Both Padres baseball leaders were astonished by what the 2010 team had achieved through more than three-quarters of the season.

The rest of the baseball world, outside of Padres players, looked on in amazement, too.

Those Padres were projected to win just 71 games when the season began. Beyond star Adrián González, their offense was thought to be decidedly suspect. The team’s $38.6 million payroll sat last in Major League Baseball. Creating skepticism about the club’s ability to increase payroll, a layaway plan was in place for CEO Jeff Moorad to buy the team from John Moores. But MLB’s approval would be required for the sale to happen, and that decision wouldn’t come before 2012.

MLB scouts were saying Moorad would order rookie general manager Jed Hoyer to trade González to a playoff contender once the Padres had fallen deep out of contention. If not then, González would be dealt after the season.

But Padres players made a summer sell-off impossible.

Led by a killer bullpen and González, the team won so often that Moorad and Hoyer held on to their star and went into buyer mode. Parting with a Double-A pitcher named Corey Kluber, regarded by many scouts as a back-of-the-rotation prospect, they dealt for Cardinals slugger Ryan Ludwick as part of a three-way deal.

The text message – 76-49 – was shorthand for baseball madness.

Not only were manager Bud Black’s Padres atop their division, they led the whole National League on that morning of Aug. 25.

Then they lost the next 10 games.

The Giants, who were 6 1/2 games back, passed the Padres in September.

In the season’s final game, Bruce Bochy’s Giants beat the Padres to win the division crown.

Delivering its own stunner, San Francisco would go on to win the World Series in 2010. And again in 2012 and 2014.

No one with a clue labeled the Padres as chokers. Baseball gravity had caught up with them. Their talent limitations could no longer be overcome.

The postscript served up another baseball surprise. Kluber’s upside, it turned out, was far higher than most folks guessed.

Kluber would win two Cy Young awards with Cleveland and help the 2016 club get to within one victory of its first World Series title since 1948.

The Ludwick chapter served up color, too. The then-cavernous Petco Park messed with his mind, and Ludwick admitted he lost the form that had led the Padres to trade for him.

Baseball smiled instead on the Giants. The club added to its offense by claiming outfielder Cody Ross off waivers. Ross hit three home runs down the stretch, then five more in the World Series tournament.

That’s enough baseball wackiness to fill a wing in Cooperstown. Footnote: the day before Padres rookie ace Mat Latos started the team’s biggest game — the finale against the Giants — he got a large tattoo on his torso in San Francisco. The ink session left him with a sore back going into the contest.

Takeaway No. 1: Good luck trying to figure out baseball.

Takeaway No. 2: This year’s Padres team is much more talented than the 2010 Padres and has a great chance to close out its push for a playoff bid.

The Padres are still in the West race, which the talented but inconsistent Dodgers lead.

For the Reds to pass the Padres and claim one of the three wild-card playoff spots, it would take several drastic changes. The Reds trailed the Padres by six games going into Tuesday. They will visit for three games this month. They have a much tougher schedule, it appears.

Padres players, in comparison, are far more accustomed to playing — and winning — higher-stakes games. Even with Jason Adam’s season-ending injury suffered Monday, the Padres have a much better bullpen, although Cincinnati’s rotation may have more September upside. Jackson Merrill and Michael King could be worth a few additional victories if they return as projected.

Not to belabor the obvious, but some dear Padres fans have lost their minds in recent days. It’s still a good idea to keep your October schedule open.