What do San Diegans think of redistricting? New Union-Tribune poll finds mix of support, uncertainty

A slight majority of San Diego County voters support efforts by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats in the Legislature to redraw California’s congressional districts, a new poll finds.

Fewer support the move needed to do so, an override of the state’s independent redistricting commission — suggesting those pushing the effort would need to do some convincing between now and November.

Those are some of the findings of a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for The San Diego Union-Tribune and ABC 10News and released Thursday, just as the Legislature voted to approve legislation to redraw the maps and put the question to voters in a Nov. 4 special election.

Last week, Newsom announced plans for a special election asking voters to temporarily override the state’s independent redistricting commission and let the Legislature redraw congressional maps, in an effort to give Democrats an advantage in future races. 

The move aims to counter a Republican effort in Texas to consolidate GOP control of Congress in next year’s midterm election. State lawmakers there passed their own new maps Wednesday.

In San Diego County, using the maps Democrats have proposed is expected to make the seat held by Rep. Darrell Issa, a Republican, notably more competitive. But other local districts would emerge looking very different, too.

According to the poll, 52% of respondents said they either strongly or somewhat support California Democrats’ redistricting efforts. Of the nearly 600 registered voters polled, another 37% said they oppose the effort, and 11% were not sure.

But if the special election were held today, voters were somewhat less confident in their stance. Just under half said they would to vote to override the independent commission, while 30% said they would vote not to override it. More than a fifth of voters said they were not sure.

Support was much stronger among poll respondents who said they were certain to vote in such an election, however. Of those likely voters, 60% said they would vote yes, 31% no. Only 9% were undecided.

When presented with further details and scenarios about a possible redistricting special election, the people polled expressed less support.

About 40% of respondents said they would be less likely to support the redistricting effort if the special election cost what the Republican-led gubernatorial recall election cost four years ago — $200 million. A quarter of voters said the cost made no difference; 21% said it would make them even more likely to support it.

Only 38% of voters said they would support changes to San Diego’s congressional maps that could potentially shift the county’s own districts to favor a different party, compared with one-third who opposed them. About 30% said they were not sure.

The poll shows Newsom’s apparent presidential ambitions are resonating well with Democratic voters in San Diego County.

Forty-two percent of Democratic voters said they would definitely vote for Newsom in a 2028 Democratic primary, and 23% said they probably would. Seventeen percent said they couldn’t say without knowing what other Democrats would be on the ballot.

Among all San Diego County voters, Newsom’s job performance draws stronger approval than both the GOP-controlled Congress and the Democratic-controlled state Legislature.

More than half approve of Newsom’s performance, while about 41% disapprove and just 4% were unsure. Voters are more evenly split on the Legislature, which draws approval from 44%, disapproval from 40% and uncertainty from about 17%.

When it comes to Congress, however, twice as many San Diego County voters disapprove as approve — 60% versus 30%. Only 8% of poll respondents said they strongly approve of the job being done by Congress.

The poll was conducted online from Aug. 18-20 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5 points.