3 thoughts: SDSU 83, New Mexico 79 … less is more, Hack-a-Heide and the San Diego Lobos

Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 83-79 win over New Mexico on Saturday night at Viejas Arena:

1. Less is more

Of the many incongruous and counterintuitive aspects of this Aztecs team, this might be top of the list:

The less they practice, the better they play.

As much as X’s and O’s have contributed to their seven-game win streak and sole possession of first place in the Mountain West, as much as the resurgence of Reese Dixon-Waters and Miles Byrd has flipped their fortunes, as much as a recommitment to defense has carried them, maybe the biggest factor has been the start of the conference schedule and the end of long stretches of nothing … but … practice.

In the nonconference, they had nine, six, seven, seven, seven and eight days between games.

During the Mountain West season, with the exception of one bye week, they play every three or four days. The weekly routine: hard practice, light practice, game, off day, hard practice, light practice, game.

“This team appears to me to be better suited to fewer practices,” coach Brian Dutcher said recently. “When we were going a week at a time, they couldn’t concentrate; they couldn’t go three, four, five, six straight days of practice. They were mentally incapable of giving me what I wanted in practice, and I couldn’t get it out of them.

“Now they know they’re not going to be out there long at practice. They’re looking forward to the game, but they’re paying enough attention in practice to know the game plan and what we’re trying to accomplish.”

There is a rhythm that comes with routine, and this team seems to have settled into one. And given their depth, banging on quality players for two hours gets old quickly.

Said Byrd: “We love basketball, but I don’t think anybody loves practicing hard against each other for seven straight days, beating each other up. Not just frustration, but it’s tough on your body as well. With fewer days between games, we’re able to come in with more mental focus, less fatigue. I think our practices have been better because of that.”

Added forward Miles Heide: “I would say the majority of us kind of have a little bit of ADHD. We have a hard time focusing, myself included. It’s definitely hard when you have those nine-day stretches of practice to focus every single day. Playing more games is definitely better for us.”

It will be that way for the next three weeks, a 2-to-1 ratio of practices to games. Then comes the Aztecs’ only bye, between Feb. 7 and Feb. 14. Then they play twice a week through the remainder of the season.

“It’s better for this team,” Dutcher said. “I’ve had teams in the past where it’s not, but this team struggles to practice for the entire time. … Every team has a different identity and personality, and no matter how much you want to make them all the same, you have to adjust to how they are and how they can cope with things.”

2. Hack-a-Heide

The decision by New Mexico coach Eric Olen to instruct forward Tomislav Buljan to intentionally foul the 6-foot-9 Heide up two with 56.8 seconds left and send him to the line for 1-and-1 free throws is rooted in history and math.

First, the history.

It is more commonly known as Hack-a-Shaq, the NBA tactic to foul 7-1, 325-pound Shaquille O’Neal, a 52.7% free-throw shooter, that was popularized by Dallas Mavericks coach Don Nelson in 1999 and used over the final 12 years of O’Neal’s career.

Nelson actually did it two seasons earlier to Dennis Rodman, who was shooting 38% at the time. And way back in the 1960s, teams did it to Hall of Fame center Wilt Chamberlain, a career 51.1% shooter.

Now, the math.

The simple version is that college teams score roughly 1.1 points per possession. Fouling a 72% free-throw shooter, the national average, would result in 1.44 points per possession. Even a 60% shooter theoretically gets you 1.2.

The more complicated version takes into account the relative strengths of the two teams and the chances of winning in regulation or overtime. Basketball analytics gurus Ken Pomeroy and Jonathan Safir created a formula in 2020 to compute this:

p(W) = p(OT)*p(W|OT) + p(Reg)*p(W|Reg)

They found for an underdog up two with the shot clock turned off, the chance of winning was 74.2% without fouling, or the same as fouling a 69% free-throw shooter in a 1-and-1 situation. Any free-throw percentage below that, and the win probability tips in your favor.

USF, where Safir was on staff, started doing it in targeted situations in 2020. The Dons’ head coach was Todd Golden, who five years later won a national title with Florida and helped legitimize analytics in college basketball.

Pomeroy and Safir’s formula isn’t a completely apples-to-apples comparison to Saturday’s game, because there were 56.8 seconds left and the shot clock was still on. Close enough, though. You can see why Olen took “the gamble,” as Buljan said, especially with a guy shooting 38.1% for the season and 34.8% over his three-year college career.

That’s, on average, .76 points per possession. The numbers screamed: do it.

It caught Dutcher by surprise, who has subbed out Heide in the past for superior free-throw shooters in obvious fouling situations.

“If we were ahead by two or three at the end of the game, then maybe I’d have guards in where we would have a better free-throw percentage,” Dutcher said. “For them to foul ahead by two, I’m not that bright a coach. I didn’t think they’d foul intentionally at that point.

“If they fouled him on purpose analytically, he made them pay.”

Heide’s two free throws tied the score at 79. The Aztecs got a stop and a BJ Davis basket with 11 seconds left to take the lead for good.

“Credit to Miles,” said Olen, who fully admitted his intent, “for knocking down a couple big free throws there.”

3. San Diego Lobos

The Lobos arrived in San Diego on Friday. They practiced at Viejas Arena, then Olen, much of his coaching staff and about a half-dozen players headed north to watch a high school game between two of the top five teams in the San Diego section.

Dax Hall, the younger brother of Lobos freshman (and Carlsbad High School alum) Jake Hall, plays for No. 1 Santa Fe Christian. Tavid Johnson, a recent New Mexico commit despite being only a junior, plays for No. 5 Francis Parker. Francis Parker hung on to win 63-60 on Friday after blowing a 20-point lead in the second half.

The Lobos already have a decidedly San Diego flavor. Olen and most of his coaching staff came from UC San Diego; so did two players from last season’s 30-5 team. Hall went to Carlsbad, and Luke Haupt played at St. Augustine High School and Point Loma Nazarene. New Mexico’s Uriah Tenette initially committed to UCSD.

Dax Hall, a senior guard averaging 27.9 points, is uncommitted, but some expect him to end up with his brother in Albuquerque. Already heading there is Johnson, a 6-2 guard rated a four-star prospect who was also receiving interest from SDSU, USC and Boise State.

“I’ve known Olen and a lot of the coaching staff since I was 13 years ago, when they were back here at UCSD,” Johnson said. “They’ve been recruiting me for a long time, believing in me for a long time. It just felt like home. It felt right.

“It’s huge, the love that the coaching staff and the players have shown me, the culture they have, that they’re coming to this game. That’s something I want to be a part of. I couldn’t be more excited to go to Albuquerque.”

He might be there sooner than you think. Rumors are swirling that Johnson will reclassify to the class of 2026 and start his college career a year early.

“Whatever happens after this season, happens,” Johnson said. “But I’m not focused on that. I haven’t even been thinking about it.”

Whenever he arrives, that would make it five local prep players on Olen’s rosters in Albuquerque – or four more than are currently at the city’s three Division I teams combined. The only one is SDSU walk-on Raymar Gonzalez from Eastlake High School.