3 thoughts: Troy 108, SDSU 107 (2OT) … the resume hit, Magoon Gwath’s return, work to do

Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 108-107 double overtime loss against Troy at Viejas Arena on Tuesday night:

1. Margin of error

How bad was it?

Bad. Really, really bad.

Troy is certainly a better team than its record, which includes losses at Loyola Marymount and Cal State Northridge, suggests. But the computer doesn’t know that, and the NCAA Selection Committee probably won’t know that. It will just see a Quad 3 smudge on SDSU’s resume and frown.

The NCAA’s NET metric sorts games into quadrants based on their location and your opponent’s standing. Quad 1 and 2 wins are good, Quad 3 and 4 losses are bad. And Troy, which entered the night with a Kenpom ranking of 135, falls squarely within the parameters of Quad 3.

Or look at it this way: Of the 37 teams that received at-large bids into last spring’s NCAA Tournament, 29 had no Quad 3 or 4 losses. Of the eight that did, six belong to power conferences where there are ample opportunities for quality wins to counterbalance any stumbles. Even then, one got a No. 5 seed and the others were all No. 7 seeds or worse.

The only two mid-majors who survived Quad 3 losses last season were New Mexico, which won the Mountain West regular-season title; and SDSU, which overcame a Quad 3 home loss to UNLV thanks largely to a November win against eventual NCAA runner-up Houston.

New Mexico got a No. 10 seed. SDSU was shipped to the First Four.

So there’s still hope, still a path to the dance floor. Tuesday night just eliminated the Aztecs’ usual map — a clean resume with no bad losses, amplified by the occasional marquee win in the nonconference. It eliminated any margin for error … in the third game of the season.

Or as Miles Byrd, the team’s de facto leader, put it: “I think as a team we’ll be resilient enough where we don’t let this affect us in the long run, but we have to do some work now.”

Of course, there’s no indication this won’t happen again with a schedule that includes 11 more Quad 3 or 4 games.

The good news for SDSU this year is it returns eight players from last season. The bad news is also that it returned eight players from last season, from a team that regularly played down to its opponent’s level, that had one close call after another against inferior talent.

There was the 21-point deficit against San Jose State at home, the 17-point deficit against San Jose State on the road, nearly blowing an 11-point lead with 15 seconds left against Wyoming, a buzzer-beating layup by Wayne McKinney III in overtime at Air Force, the six-point game against Cal Baptist — all nervy wins.

Tempt fate enough, and it’s gonna bite back. And it did at Viejas Arena against UNLV, which finished the season No. 98 in the NET. That ended a streak of 67 straight wins in Quad 3 or 4 games, a prodigious achievement that came to define the program. They simply didn’t take nights off. Refused to take bad losses.

It was a point of emphasis in the offseason, not letting teams hang around and build belief, particularly in the fortress of Viejas Arena. The early returns were promising, leading USD by 38 in the final exhibition and thumping Long Beach State by 32 in the opener. Byrd talked about their collective mental maturity.

But then the Aztecs let an overmatched Idaho State team hang around into the second half – red flag. Then, down 14-2 against Troy and needing Byrd’s miracle halfcourt heave just to force overtime.

“They came and punched us in the mouth early,” Byrd said to the visitors from southeastern Alabama. “You know, that’s something we’ve tried to talk about as a team early on. You can’t have slippage.

“I mean, it’s a learning experience. Obviously, you don’t want this one to be the learning experience, but it’s gotta happen, I guess.”

2. No problems at all

Buried in the dark clouds was this silver lining: Magoon Gwath looked surprisingly good for a guy who had knee surgery seven months ago and was cleared for full contact only 11 days earlier.

“I thought he was spectacular,” SDSU coach Brian Dutcher said.

The 7-foot sophomore finished with 20 points (on 5-of-5 shooting), seven rebounds, six drawn fouls, two steals and three blocks in 28 minutes. The Aztecs were plus-15 points, best on the team by a mile, with him on the floor, which included the 18-6 run to close regulation that was triggered by his 3-point play followed by a corner 3.

The plan was to use him only 20 minutes, but circumstances – and desperation – dictated otherwise.

“He was probably right on target in regulation,” Dutcher said. “But once we went to overtime, he was too important and wanted to be in there and was playing at a high level. I didn’t feel we put him at risk by playing him (extra).”

The big concern was whether Gwath would baby his right knee, whether he’d be tentative with a bulky brace.

We got our answer four seconds after checking in at the 17:11 mark of the first half. Gwath caught an inbounds pass, attacked the basket off the dribble, crashed into a defender and drew a foul. He missed both free throws, but that was immaterial in the bigger picture.

“I was trying to have an aggressive mindset,” Gwath said. “If I make a mistake, at least I make a mistake being aggressive. No problems at all, moving great, didn’t feel like I had any wrong steps or anything.

“It felt good, definitely boosted the confidence after not playing for so long, getting to go out there and not having as much drop-off I thought. It was fun.”

3. Bully ball

The temptation is to spend the next few days of practice trying to fix Tuesday’s foibles.

There’s a time and place for that. It just isn’t this week.

SDSU’s next opponent, Monday night in Las Vegas in the Players Era Festival, is No. 7 Michigan.

From a tactical standpoint, the Wolverines are the anti-Troy.

The Trojans had no one on the roster above 6-foot-9 and rank 178th nationally in average height. Michigan’s starting front line is 6-9, 6-9 and 7-3 with a 7-2 guy off the bench; it ranks 24th.

“It’s not like we’re going to play Michigan and they’re going to play 5-out (offense) and do the same things Troy did,” Dutcher said. “They couldn’t if they wanted to. They’ve got giants and they’re going to be around the rim and it’s going to be a fistfight in there. … They’re going to try to beat the living tar out of us in the paint. And they’re good at it.”

The Wolverines may actually be a better matchup for the Aztecs, who can counter size with size, length with length, athlete with athlete. Michigan has 7-3 Aday Mara, 6-9 Morez Johnson Jr. and 6-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. Oregon, SDSU’s opponent Tuesday, has 7-0 Nate Biddle and 6-10 Kwame Evans Jr.

“It will be a totally different game plan,” Dutcher said. “As much as we want to learn from what happened, we’ll have to go back to the drawing board and come up with a game plan for a different style of offense.

“That’s the fun part about coaching, is trying to move on from a loss and trying to learn from it. But we’re not going to repeat against a team like (Troy) for a while. Everybody we’re playing in Vegas is all going to have 5 men and they’re going to live around the rim a little more.”