Michael Smolens: Prop. 50 may focus money on just a few districts, including Issa’s

The battle over redistricting that has burned hot in California and Texas already has shifted to other states, even before Tuesday’s election.

That’s not surprising, given by all accounts — even forthright opponents — the outcome of Proposition 50 is a fait accompli. People have looked silly before talking about sure things that weren’t, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards this time, according to polls that show solid support for the ballot measure.

While the proposal was a direct response to offset the redistricting in Texas that may gain the GOP five seats, partisans in other red and blue states are looking to redraw maps.

Proposition 50, assuming it passes, will not only reshape several California congressional districts but refocus what next year’s campaign will look like.

Seven likely competitive districts may shrink to two or three, with Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s 48th one of them, according to analysts.

That means a lot of Democratic and Republican money that would have been spread out among at least those seven might be concentrated on the remaining few districts in contention.

For example, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin’s 49th District straddling the San Diego and Orange County line was a decidedly purple battleground in the last five elections. The new maps give him more Democratic votes, possibly enough to take his district off the chessboard.

While in theory Democrats could gain the advantage in at least five currently GOP districts, some remaining Republican seats also became more red.

Issa’s current very red San Diego East County-centric district becomes only slightly blue. For that reason, many close election watchers likely will drill into Tuesday’s vote in the new 48th, trying to read the tea leaves about what that means for the November 2026 election.

On that, UC San Diego political science Professor Thad Kousser flashes a caution sign.

He said such an assessment would be “interesting, but a misleading data point.”

For one thing, the current statewide campaign is not candidate-specific and there has been a severe imbalance in funding. The anti-Proposition 50 effort received an early flurry of big money that has since dried up. The campaign has been minimal in recent days.

Meanwhile, the pro side has been so flush while waging a full-force campaign that Gov. Gavin Newsom last week took the unusual step of urging small donors to stop contributing.

It’s unlikely the competitive districts would see such an imbalance next year. And how the campaigns target voters likely will be different, according to Kousser.

“Democratic leaders have sought to pass Prop. 50 by mobilizing their base of Democratic voters, counting on them to vote ‘Yes,’” he said. “Republicans have sought to oppose it by persuading independent voters and some Democrats to vote ‘No,’ rather than mobilizing their base.

“That might lead to a more Democratic-leaning electorate in November 2025 than we are likely to see in November 2026, when both parties will be focused on turning out their base and persuading independents.”

Still, a blowout for Proposition 50 in Issa’s new district could be discouraging for Republicans. Conversely, a very close win or loss of the ballot measure in the district might have Democrats gulping hard given their campaign has argued this is a vote against President Donald Trump, who is very unpopular in California. Issa is an outspoken Trump loyalist.

The new 48th District would no longer include Poway, Santee or Ramona, while picking up San Marcos and Vista and reaching deeper into Riverside County, dropping Murrieta but adding Palm Springs. That would give Democrats a registration advantage of 4 percentage points over Republicans.

Kousser reiterated that he believes Issa nevertheless “has a real shot.”

He said the incumbent collected votes above the GOP registration in his current district in the past election, albeit against a largely unknown candidate. Kousser also said Issa is more of a known entity now in the parts of the district that will remain in the new one.

“He’s built up a reputation with those voters that he didn’t have the last time he ran against Ammar Campa-Najjar,” Kousser said.

Campa-Najjar and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert are considered the two leading Democratic candidates running next year in the 48th District. Issa defeated Campa-Najjar by 8 points in 2020, Issa’s first election in what was then a new district for him.

In the big California picture, Kousser said what the political dynamics are next year and who’s actually on the ballot likely will be determinative factors. He said an indicator will come with the filing deadlines early next year.

Then there’s the real prospect of election disputes, given Trump already has been making his seemingly reflexive, baseless contention that fraud will occur. He’s sending federal election monitors to California and New Jersey next week, and it’s safe to assume he’ll send more — or other forces — across the country in 2026.

While Democrats are targeting five California districts to flip, Kousser said only a couple are likely to be highly competitive. He said the nationwide redistricting gyrations could leave the GOP with a gain of five or six seats, but that it may not matter much in the end.

“All these marginal changes could be washed away if there’s a big midterm swing,” he said.

In Trump’s first midterm election in 2018, Republicans lost 40 House seats, according to The American Presidency Project.

Meanwhile, the anticipated Republican “red wave” during President Joe Biden’s 2022 midterms fizzled badly.

The real wild card this time around may be whether the Supreme Court limits the Voting Rights Act in time for the midterms by doing away with Section 2, a key provision that has prevented the dilution of Black voting influence.

By one estimate, that could allow the GOP to gain 19 more seats, perhaps in addition to what the party would pick up under the existing redistricting efforts.

That likely would make the notion that the House majority will be determined by the California-Texas fight seem like ancient history.

What they said

Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt. (@SenPeterWelch)

“Officer Daniel Hodges, who defended the Capitol on January 6: ‘Every single member of the majority on this subcommittee has either contributed to one of the most infamous examples of conservative political violence of our age, or the protection of its perpetrators.’”