Tom Krasovic: The sky isn’t falling for the Padres, who have the talent, IQ to go far

Sorry to be the bearer of good news, what with sports fans here always wary of the next SD-logo’d anvil falling out of the sky.

But the Padres will play in the postseason next month. And they’ll have a realistic chance at success there.

Whether it’s as a wild-card winner (more likely) or the division champion, the Padres can beat any of the other 11 teams in the World Series tournament without it being a big surprise.

This year, there’s no great team in baseball, although the National League Central-leading Brewers are having a great season.

A few National League teams looked capable of being a powerhouse. The Phillies were one of them.

Though still formidable, the National League East leaders will lack their great ace, Zack Wheeler, due to the blood clot that ended his season last month. Their great shortstop, Trea Turner, was shut down last week by a hamstring injury. Also, due to a steroid suspension that takes effect next month, they’ll lack one of their better relievers, José Alvarado.

If the Dodgers play up to their immense talent, they will become the first National League club since Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine to win consecutive World Series. But L.A. has goofed up so many winnable games against losing teams that it remains an enigma.

So it goes in the American League. The Yankees’ ceiling was lowered by ace Gerrit Cole’s elbow injury that’ll shelve him until next year. Astros closer Josh Hader, amidst a dominant season, was shut down by an arm ailment recently. He’s not due back soon.

I’m not inflating the Padres here. They’re well behind the ’98 Padres, who went into September 41 games above .500 and climbed to the World Series.

Per the track record of this era, the Padres don’t hit enough home runs to win the World Series tournament. With the exception of Nick Pivetta, their rotation defines uneven performance. Jason Adam’s season-ending injury stung.

But this is true, too: the Padres have the talent to cause problems.

Relief pitcher Mason Miller has averaged 17 strikeouts per nine innings since A.J. Preller traded for him on July 31. His improving slider looks like a major development, punishing hitters who have to cheat on a fastball that reached 102.3 mph Tuesday in another scoreless inning.

If the Padres were to make a deep run, the abundance of open dates in the postseason, in theory, would allow their cadre of high-velocity relievers to maintain both sharpness and heat that ranges from 98 to 104 mph.

Another summer trade acquisition, left fielder Ramón Laureano, became the final piece of what is now a very good outfield trio.

Fernando Tatis Jr., by having his best season of drawing walks and not chasing pitches, can force pitchers to come to him or to go after someone else in the lineup. Tatis gets my vote over Padres Hall of Famers Dave Winfield and Tony Gwynn for the best defensive right fielder in Padres history. This is a very good ballplayer.

Jackson Merrill grades out as above average as a hitter, defender and baserunner, though not to the same extent as Tatis. The left-hander’s expected slug rate of .491 isn’t far off from last year’s .534, perhaps boding well for more actual home runs, doubles and triples.

Laureano has amassed eight home runs, six doubles and a .923 OPS as a Padre heading into Wednesday night’s game.

Plus, baseball IQ gives the Padres another strength.

I’ve touted it since April. I acknowledge it’s hard to quantify.

Two examples, drawn from many, apply.

In a recent win over the Red Sox, Jake Cronenworth turned a bloop hit into a double because his mind was right.

True to the Bruce Bochy and (bench coach) Rob Picciolo axiom of ’98 that a ballplayer shouldn’t be surprised by anything that happens in a game, Cronenworth got a great jump out of the batter’s box, cornered first base precisely and made a crisp slide into second base. He won by about 10 inches.

Hesitation out of the box would’ve led to Cronenworth getting thrown out or settling for a single. His swing put him in a bad position. But without pause, he flung the bat, reset and burst toward first base in a fluid motion.

Manager Mike Shildt snapped his fingers after the game, replicating Cronenworth’s reaction time.

Many big-leaguers would’ve either been thrown out or held at first base.

In the same game, Boston’s Wilyer Abreu, another left-handed hitter, lofted a similar parachute. When the ball caromed away from Laureano after landing between him and shortstop Xander Bogaerts, Abreu’s chances for a double improved.

But the Sox player — whose sprint speed of 27.6 feet per second is less than a foot slower than Cronenworth’s — didn’t burst from the box, nixing his chance at an extra base.

Leaving food on the table due to imprecise fundamentals happens a lot in the big leagues. Tuesday night brought another example. Young Reds star Elly De La Cruz, who is ultra-fast, cost his team an extra base by not exploiting a good chance off his hit to right field.

The Padres aren’t baseball Einsteins. But they’re pretty good at the details — including on defense, where they lead the National League at turning balls in play into outs.

To go far, they’ll need a few mild surprises, such as an increased home run rate and improved starting pitching. But they’re far from alone in that respect.