Tom Krasovic: There’s no time for half-measures as Padres look ahead to 2026

New Padres boss John Seidler says the first goal remains this one:

Win the World Series trophy.

I’ll amend that to this: win the 2026 World Series trophy.

The Padres have become an old team, but now isn’t the time to go young. Trading the old dudes looks impractical, so A.J. Preller must upgrade the talent around the nucleus of several starters in their 30s — Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ramón Laureano, Nick Pivetta, Jake Cronenworth and Freddy Fermin — plus young stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill.

How high can the payroll go? Seidler seems to have some say there. He’s been the club’s control person since February.

Entering his first full offseason, Seidler may want to ponder a comment made a few years ago by Peter Seidler, his late brother.

Sometimes it’s risky not to push hard to improve the team for the season ahead.

Now appears to be such a time.

Cloudy forecasts for 2027 make 2026 more enticing. Negotiations on Major League Baseball’s next labor pact could disrupt the ’27 season. That same year, Machado’s salary will soar. He and Bogaerts will get a combined $65 million. The two infielders — who each have a lot of baseball mileage on their bodies — will turn 35 that year.

Preller has become so adept at finding starting pitchers who return good or great value, it’s not very concerning that he’ll need to shore up the starting pitching in the coming months.

The Padres finished second in run prevention last year, matching their finish in 2023. Ruben Niebla, the pitching coach Preller hired, seems to have a lot of success preparing pitchers. The bullpen boasts a build-around duo in Mason Miller and Adrián Morejón.

First base is a different story. It’s the new hot corner in Padres Land.

Luis Arraez is likely departing as a free agent, leaving a hole at first.

Finding first basemen, Preller has mostly underperformed the bright results of many of the franchise’s other team-builders.

Nate Colbert powered up the expansion Padres and hit 38 home runs in 1972, despite the 17-foot wall at San Diego Stadium.

Two years later, Willie McCovey amassed 22 home runs, 96 walks and an adjusted OPS 64% better than the league average.

Steve Garvey hit the most important home run in franchise history, leading to a World Series berth. And it wasn’t long before homegrown John Kruk put up an adjusted OPS 40% percent above the league’s norm.

Fred McGriff, Hall of Famer. Wasn’t his fault Tom Werner ran the franchise.

Back when Petco Park played Yellowstone-big, Adrián González led the Padres to their most recent West title and took MLB’s smallest payroll to 90 wins.

If those guys aren’t enough to inspire Preller and Seidler, here’s two ex-Padres first basemen who, like González and McGriff, could swat it and pick it.

Jack Clark had some 25 home runs and a .425ish on-base rate for two Padres clubs. Wally Joyner was Mr. Cool for two playoff teams, hitting .415 with runners in scoring position for the ’98 club.

Might Preller consider moving Machado across the diamond to first, if he finds a young third baseman?

Seems premature. But creativity is one of Preller’s strengths.

Good first-base news is soon to become official. The Padres will no longer have to pay Eric Hosmer. The former first baseman got $12.9 million from the team this year, the final season on his sunk-cost contract.

The Padres won 90 games last year, a year after winning 93 games. In three of the past five full seasons, they’ve reached the playoffs.

But it would be a mistake for Preller and Seidler to believe the ’25 Padres were close to winning the World Series.

The Dodgers, no matter how many injuries they suffer or whatever detours they take, cannot be dethroned in the annual National League West race. The Padres have virtually no shot at a first-round bye. Because of that burden and the expanded scope of the World Series tournament, the trophy is farther away than it may appear in the years the Padres get a playoff berth.

The closest the Padres have come to the World Series title was three victories in 1984, when only three playoff victories were needed to enter the Fall Classic.

Chew on this comparison: when the 2025 Padres’ bid for the trophy ended last week with the Wild Card Series Game 3 loss to the Cubs, the team was still 12 postseason victories shy of the title — or four times the total needed by the 1984 Padres after they won just four postseason games.

The message is clear. If Seidler is serious about winning it all, Preller will need to improve this 40-man roster and prospect pool quite a bit between now and the summer trade deadline. Show him plenty of spending money, John.