3 thoughts: SDSU 121, Whittier 59 … the metrics, the rotation and the Poets

Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 121-59 win against Division III Whittier on Monday afternoon at Viejas Arena:

1. The metrics

The nonconference schedule is complete, and the results are in.

It’s not pretty.

The Aztecs went 6-4, with two of the losses against No. 1 and No. 2 in the Associated Press poll. There’s a win over an underachieving Oregon team, and a loss against a Baylor team positioned to make the NCAA Tournament. And the killer: a home loss against Troy, which is 143 in Kenpom and 138 in the NET.

Statistically the best win is against … Utah Valley.

The metrics reflect that. They aren’t irreparable, but the last time the Aztecs were in this deep a hole at Christmas was 2018-19, Brian Dutcher’s second season as head coach that ended without postseason basketball.

The Aztecs are 52 in Kenpom, which is the outer reaches of NCAA Tournament consideration. Last season, they were 46 on Selection Sunday and squeaked into the First Four largely based on marquee nonconference wins against Houston and Creighton – something they don’t have this year.

But Kenpom isn’t their problem. Everything else is.

They are 80 in ESPN’s BPI and WAB, a metric that has gained traction with the selection committee. They are 85 in Strength of Record, 87 in the NET, 106 in KPI.

Those all need to be elevated into the 40s, and that is complicated by a Mountain West that doesn’t offer as many opportunities for quality, metric-enhancing wins as recent seasons, particularly in the comfy confines of Viejas Arena. As things stand now, SDSU has only five needle-moving Quad 1 games left, and four are on the road – three above 4,500 feet. Just one comes before Feb. 20.

And there are eight Quad 3 or 4 games, none of which they can afford to lose.

The harsh reality: They’re awfully close to the rest of the regular season becoming a 2½-month training camp ahead of the conference tournament, which might be their only viable path to the NCAA Tournament.

“These are the teams we have to play and beat in order to be a tournament team,” Dutcher said after Saturday’s second-half meltdown against No. 1 Arizona ended in a 68-45 loss. “We missed our opportunities this year, losing to Michigan and Arizona (and Baylor). Last year, we beat Houston and that was probably the biggest reason we got to the NCAA Tournament.

“Now we’ve put ourselves where the conference is all we can look forward to. We have to find a way to avoid the landmines in the Mountain West and win quality games.”

2. The rotation

Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd is back to playing strictly an eight-man rotation, his preference over the years. Perhaps there was a lesson learned last season, when it ballooned to nine or 10 and the Wildcats opened 4-5 (and ultimately lost 13 games).

Depth can be both a blessing and a curse, as Dutcher is learning.

He was asked if he’ll consider shortening the bench.

“Until someone proves we can’t play without them on the floor, we’ll continue to play a lot of guys,” Dutcher said. “If someone steps up and I say, ‘We can’t win if this guy is off the floor, he needs to be out there 30 minutes,’ then he’ll be on the floor for 30 minutes. They’re kind of determining that, not me.

“We’ve got guys who are all playing well, but nobody has hit that level yet where we can’t survive without him out there.”

And therein lies this team’s greatest issue. No one has moved ahead of the class, no one has fallen behind. They’re all in the meaty part of the curve.

That includes the three preseason all-conference selections: Miles Byrd, Magoon Gwath and Reese Dixon-Waters. That includes everyone else, too, doing enough to command a spot in the rotation but not enough – or at least not consistently enough – to create clear separation at the top.

The only player approaching that level has been guard BJ Davis, who had a streak of seven games with double-figure scoring. But then he followed it by shooting 2 of 13 over the last two.

Eleven guys are averaging double-digit minutes. Ten are averaging at least 15. Only two are averaging over 25 minutes, and no one more than Dixon-Waters’ 27.

The Aztecs rank eighth nationally in bench minutes, at 45.2%. The national average is 33%.

“It’s a balancing act,” Dutcher said, “because in your own mind you’re wondering, ‘If I gave (a player) 10 more minutes would he step up? Or if he had just six more minutes?’ But I’m comfortable playing all the guys I’m playing because I think they’re playing their roles.

“If I find that a shorter bench is best for our team, I’ll play a shorter bench. But if I find that we have to play everybody to have the success we need, then I’m going to play everybody.”

Arizona assistant coach Brandon Chappell noticed the long bench when preparing his scout on SDSU.

“I think they’re starting to settle into the rotations,” he told the Arizona Daily Star before Saturday’s game. “They’re starting to figure it out. When you’ve got 11 guys that can play, it can get a little difficult at times. We are starting to see signs of them becoming the team that everybody thought they would be.”

3. The Poets

SDSU wanted a game on Monday, two days after playing Arizona in Phoenix and before players left on an abbreviated Christmas break.

It didn’t want a Division I opponent with such a quick turnaround. Division II was in the midst of weeklong moratorium for playing games. Many Division IIIs were unavailable as well.

Whittier planned to send its players home after a Dec. 18 game, but when the call came, Poets coach Mark Jensen negotiated a way to make it work. Instead of the usual $5,000 guarantee, SDSU paid Whittier an extra $2,500 to defray the additional costs of keeping players on campus during the semester break.

The real value for the Poets, though, wasn’t in the money but the experience.

Because that’s what Division III is about, the experience.

You’re not there for fame or fortune, for packed arenas (Whittier’s two other road games this season had a total attendance of 28) or a seven-figure NIL check. You’re there for the education. You’re there for the love of the game. You’re there for all the things that Division I increasingly is not.

“It’s just really about giving the guys the experience and opportunity to come do something like this in front of this crowd,” Jensen said. “We don’t get to do stuff like this.”

Dutcher appreciates and respects that, regularly offering smaller programs a chance to play inside Viejas Arena. Last year it was the Occidental Tigers, a fellow member of the Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Association.

There is something refreshing about Division III, a purity and innocence. Players on the Whitter bench wore purple “Fear the Poets” T-shirts.

“They’re down 40 points, and they have a guy off the bench make two free throws and they’re rejoicing in that,” Dutcher said. “They’re down and they’re still celebrating, and that means they have a chance as a team to have a really special season because they’re connected. That’s all you want in college athletics. You want a connected group that cares about one another.”

Freshman Tae Simmons noticed it.

“I don’t think it’s fair to judge people just because they play at Division III,” he said. “There are hoopers all over the place. … Props to those guys for coming out here. I appreciate how they weren’t scared. None of them were, oh shoot, it’s San Diego State. They just played hard. I can appreciate a team that plays hard no matter what opponent they’re facing.”