Would voters back a county-led sales tax hike? San Diego County just hired these political consultants to find out.

Even as labor unions pursue a citizens’ initiative to get a countywide half-cent sales tax increase on the November ballot, San Diego County is angling for a possible hike of its own and mulling whether they could sell voters on one, a new contract shows.

The county last week awarded a six-figure contract to a team of campaign consultants, lobbyists and pollsters tasked with laying the early groundwork for a potential countywide sales tax measure on the November ballot.

The question they hope to answer: If the county put such a measure to voters, how likely are they to support it?

Democratic Supervisors Terra Lawson-Remer and Monica Montgomery Steppe, who sit on a subcommittee tasked with finding new revenue for the county, commissioned the $320,000 contract.

The subcommittee originally put it out to bid in October, according to county contracting records. Only one bidder responded; it was awarded the contract Friday.

Leading the team awarded the contract is Ironwood Public Affairs, a firm helmed Victor Aviña, a former county staffer turned lobbyist and public relations specialist.

Also attached is Amplify Campaigns, a prominent local campaign consulting firm that has worked for the campaigns of numerous county officials, including Supervisor Paloma Aguirre and District Attorney Summer Stephan.

Amplify has worked for the county before. In 2024, it was attached to a $383,000 contract the Sheriff’s Office awarded lobbying firm Southwest Strategies to study public support for a possible ballot measure to fund jail upgrades.

Such a ballot measure was never pursued.

Other companies named as Ironwood’s partners include polling firm FM3, fiscal research outfit Economic & Planning Systems and law firm Olson Remcho.

In a statement, Lawson-Remer said the contract is part of the county’s larger effort to offset the impacts of federal cuts and changes to social services programs like Medicaid and food stamps.

“We are pursuing every available solution to stop further harm and deliver real results, and this project is another step in that effort,” the supervisor said.

In its pitch for how to gauge public opinion on a possible sales tax ballot measure, Ironwood and its team proposed a multi-phase effort mixing research, polling and public outreach.

The firm’s plans include an economic analysis of county revenue needs, public opinion polling on a tax hike and public outreach to include focus groups and a town hall. That will culminate in a presentation to supervisors in May.

Per the new contract, Amplify Campaigns will draft language for a potential county-backed measure, in addition to helping with polling and community engagement.

In the proposal, Ironwood also pitched its background in “helping public agencies navigate complex fiscal, land use and policy initiatives.”

Aviña previously worked as a staffer for the Board of Supervisors when it was controlled by Republicans in the 2010s before moving on to lobbying work. His clients include AT&T, a private jet operator at the county-owned McClellan-Palomar airport and an equestrian training center in Bonsall, disclosures show.

FM3 has become a go-to contractor for the county’s polling needs. Since 2021, it has won $673,000 in county contracts. For two of those, Lawson-Remer hired it to poll on county budget and policies on housing, homelessness and the environment, contracting records show.

As the county studies the potential for its own sales tax measure, a separate effort is underway by labor unions and nonprofits to get a half-cent sales tax surcharge on the November ballot. It’s not clear whether the county would continue to pursue a separate tax measure if that effort qualifies for the ballot.

Paperwork filed by organizers of the citizens’ initiative identifies specific programs and efforts they want a surcharge to fund — mainly social services programs, public safety and mitigation of the Tijuana River Valley sewage crisis. They estimate a half-cent hike would generate $360 million for the county’s budget in its first year.

In recent weeks, the county had sought to hire other outside firms to help bring in more revenue.

A draft contract showed the county wanted to hire lobbyists to push the state Legislature to change laws to let the county  impose a steep hike in real estate transfer taxes and institute a payroll tax.

The county canceled its request for quotes on Jan. 7. County spokesperson Tammy Glenn said the county wanted to “explore different options.”

In its proposal, Ironwood noted the county had directed it to not lobby for changes to state law in Sacramento.