NFL DFS Week 10 Optimal Lineup: Lamar Jackson, trio of RBs are building blocks

The first law of ecology is everything is connected to everything else.

One part of an ecosystem can create ripple effects throughout the entire system. All organisms and their environments are part of a complex network.

In a forest, trees provide oxygen and shelter for animals, while the animals can help pollinate or spread seeds.

In daily fantasy sports, it’s helpful to try to understand each game environment in a similar fashion.

We’re trying to hitch our wagon to the teams that will score the most points. When Las Vegas assigns the Bills an expected score of 30 points, like they have this week, we need to figure out how Josh Allen and Co. get there. And if they get there, we need to discern whether the Dolphins can keep up or not.

This is how we figure out the right correlation for our lineups. A strong correlation means players’ performances are likely to influence each other, which means we have to guess less, and get fewer things right.

A great example of this was last week’s Bears-Bengals matchup which produced 89 total points between the two teams.

A DFS player named AFREE placed two lineups in the top 24 of the Milly Maker, earning $8,500, that were entirely made up of Bears, Bengals, Christian McCaffrey and a defense.

Each lineup included both team’s starting running back (Chase Brown and Kyle Monangai), both Bengals’ primary receivers (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins), the top two Bears’ pass catchers (D.J. Moore and Colston Loveland), and McCaffrey.

The only differences in the lineups were one was toplined by the Bears’ QB (Caleb Williams) and one had the Bengals’ QB (Joe Flacco) with whatever salary leftover going to a defense — the Williams lineup included the Vikings and the Flacco lineup had the Titans.

The Flacco lineup outscored the Williams lineup 250.98-241.98 on the strength of the Titans’ defensive performance against the Chargers.

While most of us may have had one or two pieces from this offensive bonanza, AFREE had them all because he hyper focused on creating a lineup built entirely around the game environment.

It doesn’t work all the time, but it usually pays handsomely when it does.

The preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for today’s NFL $2.75 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I’m in the red $45 with an average score of 138.43 points through nine weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 95.52

Week 2: 124.90

Week 3: 181.44

Week 4: 142.88

Week 5: 162.24

Week 6: 117.24

Week 7: 116.46

Week 8: 158.26

Week 9: 146.94

Week 10 lineup

QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($6,800)

When Brian Flores’ exotic pressures don’t work, the Vikings get gashed in the pass game. Both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts were masterful with low volume-highly efficient games against Flores’ blitzes recently. Herbert finished 18-of-25 for 227 yards, three TD passes and 62 yards on seven carries in Week 8’s 37-10 victory for the Chargers. Hurts was 19-of-23 for 326 yards and three TD passes in Week 7’s 28-22 win for the Eagles. I’m anticipating Jackson doing something similar with Baltimore’s playoff hopes teetering on the edge of a cliff.

RB: Quinshon Judkins, Browns ($6,500)

I’m expecting Judkins to get 20-plus touches against a Jets’ defense that just traded away their two best players in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Williams was easily their best run defender. He’s currently first in the NFL among all interior defenders in run defense grade, according to Pro Football Focus.

RB: Rico Dowdle, Panthers ($6,300)

Dowdle represents good chalk this week. In his last 10 starts, three with Carolina and his last seven with the Cowboys in 2024, Dowdle has 1,196 yards and five TDs on 220 carries (5.4 yards per carry).

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($8,400)

I could see an onslaught lineup based on Detroit taking down the slate this week if the Lions decide to send a message after a disappointing home loss to the Vikings last week. Also, the Commanders upset them in the playoffs last season, and should be reeling from the loss of Jayden Daniels this week. More lineups are projected to roster Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua than St. Brown, so this provides a little leverage to my build.

WR: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants ($5,300)

Since Jaxson Dart took over under center, Robinson has had a 24.9% target share, and a 26.5% first-read share, operating primarily out of the slot. According to Fantasy Pros, the Giants have allowed the third-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to slot receivers since Week 5. I also like Darius Slayton ($4,300) against the Bears, but it’s supposed to be very windy and cold in Chicago — Go figure! — and that could make long throws more difficult.

WR: Rashod Bateman, Ravens ($3,900)

You don’t need to stack Jackson, but Zay Flowers is currently projected as the highest-owned wide receiver on the slate. Bateman has more TD equity in Baltimore’s offense than Flowers. This is a cheap way to build more leverage on the field into the lineup.

TE: Juwan Johnson, Saints ($3,700)

With Rashid Shaheed in Seattle, I’m anticipating Johnson seeing more targets in a more concentrated pass attack for New Orleans. I’m also anticipating the Saints chasing points. Plus, the Panthers have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game, and the fourth-highest yards per reception to tight ends this season.

FLEX: D’Andre Swift, Bears ($6,100)

I’m expecting the field to overrate the chances of Kyle Monangai taking work away from Swift, and the matchup against the Giants’ run defense is premium. Since Week 5, they have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the highest missed tackle rate, the eighth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the third-highest explosive run rate, according to Fantasy Pros.

DST: Cleveland Browns ($2,900)

The Browns were the third-highest scoring defense in fantasy the last four games before their bye last week, and face a Jets’ offense tied for seventh in allowing fantasy points to opposing defenses.