NFL DFS Week 13 Optimal Lineup: Build with Rams’ Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua

If having to endure a gnarly stomach bug for the better part of Thanksgiving week hadn’t been enough, then I caught a glimpse of Week 13’s main slate.

It’s gross. The Bills and Steelers provide the highest game total (45½), and half of the 10 games are below 42 points.

I’ll be surprised if we get many barn burners out of this group. It’s much more likely we get a bunch of rock fights.

The chalk has formed around CJ Stroud (Huh?) and Justin Herbert at quarterback, De’Von Achane and Breece Hall at running back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jaylen Waddle and Puka Nacua at wide receiver, Oronde Gadsden II and Brock Bowers at tight end and the 49ers defense.

People must really not like Shedeur Sanders.

So if I’m reading this right, the field is probably building around the Chargers and Raiders indoors, with the usual suspects at wide receiver, and reaching for the ceiling at running back.

I initially decided to build around Herbert and the Chargers, but I’m pivoting to a place where I believe there’s more certainty. Also, I’m here to tell you there’s a worse QB on this slate than Sanders.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for today’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I’m in the red $105 with an average score of 135.55 points through 12 weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 95.52

Week 2: 124.90

Week 3: 181.44

Week 4: 142.88

Week 5: 162.24

Week 6: 117.24

Week 7: 116.46

Week 8: 158.26

Week 9: 146.94

Week 10: 114.44

Week 11: 118.68

Week 12: 147.58

Week 13 lineup

QB: Matthew Stafford, Rams ($7,000)

Let’s begin with the front-runner for MVP. I know there are blowout concerns with L.A. favored by 10 over the Panthers. However, the Rams usually build their leads through the air. Stafford has delivered big weeks in recent routs over the Bucs (22.9 DraftKings points), Saints (26.8) and Jaguars (27.4). Also, I think Carolina will be a little more competitive at home than what we’re giving them credit for.

RB: Jaylen Warren, Steelers ($6,300)

The Bills are allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Warren ranks third in missed tackle rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. According to Fantasy Pros, Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest rushing success rate, the highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt since Week 8.

RB: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks ($5,300)

Walker is back to being the feature back in Seattle, and the Seahawks are a big home favorite (-11½) against an aggressive Vikings defense. Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate.

WR: Puka Nacua, Rams ($9,000)

Nacua is due for a true “ceiling” game, and the Panthers will be missing their two best defensive backs, Jaycee Horn (concussion) and Tre’von Moehrig (suspension). I’m building around a Stafford-Nacua skinny stack for this lineup, but I’ll have others in my portfolio that onslaught the Rams-Panthers.

WR: Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers ($6,500)

Bucs-Cardinals is the one game I believe can ignite on Sunday, but there’s risk surrounding Baker Mayfield and his injured left shoulder. Still, there’s a lot of pieces to play with here. Egbuka’s been underwhelming since his scorching hot start, but the underlying usage and ability still signals upside.

WR: Quentin Johnston, Chargers ($4,900)

Johnston has the lowest projected ownership out of all the primary offensive pieces for the Bolts. There’s a good reason. He’s been blanked two of the last four games. But where most see recent failure, I see recency bias and potential leverage on the field. He had 71 yards and a TD against the Raiders in Week 2. Las Vegas plays a ton of single high, and Johnston sees a team-leading 25% first-read share against that coverage.

TE: AJ Barner, Seahawks ($3,200)

Barner faces a Vikings’ defense that has allowed at least nine receptions for 93 yards or a TD to tight ends in four of the last five games. He also has sneaky touchdown upside considering Barner is the QB in Seattle’s tush push alignment. If Walker gets vultured this week, I’m hoping it’s him and not Zach Charbonnet.

FLEX: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($3,500)

Hockenson faces a Seahawks defense that’s allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. I anticipate third-string QB Max Brosmer leaning on the former Pro Bowler early and often.

DST: Seattle Seahawks ($3,900)

Brosmer is an undrafted rookie making his first career start at Seattle, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. He’s facing one of the best defenses in the league. As David Lee Roth once said, “This ain’t rocket surgery.”