NFL DFS Week 4 Optimal Lineup: Build around Lamar Jackson, Rams and Colts

Building a Daily Fantasy Sports lineup to take down a large-field contest like DraftKings’ Milly Maker is a form of storytelling.

You’re constructing a narrative around how a slate of games will unfold. The most successful DFS players craft “game scripts” to create unique rosters with an emphasis on upside.

Will a specific game (or games) be a seesaw shootout or a defensive struggle? Will a team be forced to abandon the run and air it out in the second half? What are the stakes? This is the plot.

Every lineup has its main characters and supporting cast. The protagonist is the centerpiece of your story, like a superstar quarterback or high-volume running back. Your star needs sidekicks, preferably correlated players, or “stacks,” who benefit directly from the protagonist’s success.

And every great story has a plot twist. Usually a cheap player with upside and low ownership who has a breakout performance giving you leverage on the rest of the field.

Of course there are subplots. You’ll need to make contrarian choices like fading the chalk. If everyone is using an expensive, popular player, you can tell a different story where that player underperforms. It’s about embracing variance, and including an element of risk in your narrative.

The more cohesive, well-correlated story you tell, the fewer things you’ll need to get right in your lineup.

Last week’s Optimal Lineup only had a few plot holes, finishing 2,662nd out 191,176 entries, quadrupling my entry fee.

I had the Rams forcing the Eagles to be more aggressive in the pass game, which led to big games from both Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.

I believed the Vikings’ defense would confuse and pressure Bengals backup QB Jake Browning at home, producing sacks and turnovers, and lead to Jordan Mason producing a big day. Check and check.

Both George Pickens and D.J. Moore, my stack from the uber-popular Cowboys-Bears matchup, scored a touchdown.

My Jets-Buccaneers stack is where my story stumbled.

Garrett Wilson stuck to the script (10 receptions for 84 yards and a TD), and Bucky Irving was fine (99 total yards and four receptions). However, Cade Otton produced as many receptions and yards as you and I did on Sunday, with the same amount of targets.

Here’s hoping this week’s sequel is of The Godfather Part II variety and not Jaws: The Revenge.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup netted $80 last week, so I’m in the black $35 with an average score of 133.95 points through three weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 95.52

Week 2: 124.90

Week 3: 181.44

Week 4 Lineup

QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($7,500)

Baltimore-Kansas City is as close to a must-win game as the NFL can produce this early in the season. Jackson is the overall QB1 through three weeks, averaging 27.6 fantasy points per game, and has yet to go nuclear. In six career games against a Steve Spagnuolo-coached defense, Jackson has produced 50-plus rushing yards in five of six and 80-plus rushing yards in four of six.

RB: James Cook, Bills ($7,100)

Cook is averaging 118.3 total yards per game, and Buffalo is a heavy favorite (14½) at home with the highest implied team total (33 points) on the slate.

RB: Alvin Kamara, Saints ($6,100)

Kamara is averaging 19.7 touches and 77.7 total yards per game, but his target share in the pass game has dipped despite New Orleans throwing the ball a bunch. Chasing points in Buffalo might correct that. Also, the Bills’ run defense have allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt, according to Fantasy Pros.

WR: Puka Nacua, Rams ($7,900)

Nacua is the overall WR1 in PPR formats through three weeks and is first in the NFL in target share (39%), fifth in yards per route run (4.11) and is 19th in air yards share (37%). This is elite usage. The only thing missing is Sean McVay dialing up more plays for him in the red zone.

WR: Jameson Williams, Lions ($5,900)

Williams is highly volatile, but you’re playing him for his high ceiling. Like Detroit’s pass game a lot this week at home against a Browns’ defense that can stop the run. Also, Cleveland has allowed the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, according to Fantasy Pros.

WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts ($5,100)

The Rams and Indy have the highest game total on the slate (49½ points), so my first piece of the narrative puzzle this week after deciding to play Jackson à la carte was to figure out how to leverage this matchup. Nacua is a lock for me across all my lineups. On the Colts’ side, I’m attacking a Rams’ cornerback group who struggles with perimeter wide receivers and is missing their best player in Ahkello Witherspoon (broken collarbone).

TE: David Njoku, Browns ($3,800)

The Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and Browns’ QB Joe Flacco will need to get rid of the ball quickly against the Aidan Hutchinson and Co.

FLEX: Adonai Mitchell, Colts ($3,100)

Alec Pierce is out so the field will likely pivot to Josh Downs, but Mitchell is Pierce’s backup and showed a lot of growth in training camp.

DST: Detroit Lions ($3,500)

The Lions’ defense has produced 11 sacks the last two weeks, including sacking Jackson seven times on Monday night. Only the Steelers have sacked the two-time MVP that many times in a game (in 2021). Flacco is an actual statue juxtaposed with Jackson. Cleveland’s offense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.