Padres Daily: Gotta be better than that; the Fernando Tatis Jr. question

Good morning,

The Padres last night took their worst beating at Petco Park since before last year’s All-Star break.

The 10-2 loss to the Red Sox was the Padres’ largest margin of defeat at home since July 7, 2024, and the third-largest losing margin this season.

You can read in Jeff Sanders’ game story (here) about how the loss went down. Jeff mostly focused on the struggles by Nick Pivetta, who had his roughest outing in a month-and-a-half and one of his four worst outings of the season.

Pivetta (three) and Sean Reynolds (five) combined to walk eight batters, tying a season high by Padres pitchers in a game this season.

The Padres had six hits, just the seventh time in the 20 games since the All-Star break they have had fewer than nine.

They were facing Walker Buehler. So you could have expected the Padres would struggle … had it been 2021 and he was wearing a Dodgers uniform.

From 2018 up until his Tommy John surgery in 2022, Buehler was 6-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts against the Padres, including the 2020 National League Division Series.

However, in three starts against them last season, including the NLDS, he allowed 10 runs in 13⅓ innings.

Moreover, he went into last night’s game with a 5.74 ERA in his first season with the Red Sox. And he was not trending upward. His ERA was 7.18 over his previous 11 starts. Opponents were batting .317 against him in that span.

Yet, he allowed four hits over six scoreless innings last night. It was the first start this season in which he has gone more than 2⅓ innings and not allowed a run.

“It helps with your confidence when you’ve had success against certain teams before,” Buehler said. “But it doesn’t guarantee anything. … I’ve pitched here a lot. I’ve had some success here. So to come back and throw good is a big step forward for me.”

Some guys thrive against certain teams and in certain ballparks.

Thing is, though, Buehler’s success last night was not a rarity of late.

Since July 4 — around the time the Padres actually started breaking out of an  offensive slumber that had endured since mid-May — they have faced 13 starting pitchers that entered their game against the Padres with an ERA of 4.62 or higher. Many of those ERAs were much higher.

Those pitchers have a combined 3.08 ERA against the Padres in those 13 starts.

This is different from the problem in the last half of May and first half of June when they were rendered impotent against a string of good starters.

It’s uglier.

Gotta be better

It is fair to wonder at this point whether it would be a disappointment if the Padres earn the No.6 seed (or maybe even the No. 5 seed) in the playoffs.

They certainly will have to hit (and pitch) better than they did last night if they want to put themselves in position to climb higher than that in the standings. Because this series begins a run of 17 games against teams with winning records.

But it is also prudent to remember that games like last night happen. Every team has allowed 10 runs in at least three games this season. Every team has lost by eight or more runs at least twice this season.

And the Padres are in a fine spot.

Remember, they are not trying to outpace the ‘27 Yankees. Barring something of a miracle finish by the Marlins and/or Cardinals, there are eight teams legitimately in the running six National League playoff spots.

The Padres remain in the second wild-card spot (No.5 seed) and have to finish better than two of three teams — the Mets, Reds and Giants — to make the postseason field.

The Mets lost their fifth consecutive game last night. The Reds lost their third in a row. The Giants have turned things around, winning five of their past seven after a 2-12 stretch.

The Tatis question

There is no mama bear as protective of her cubs, no public relations spin doctor as positive about their clients as Mike Shildt is when it comes to his players.

But he isn’t all that creative about it.

His default is to scoff at a question or act as if he doesn’t understand (even as he says “I understand the question”).

Last night, he was asked whether he considers moving Fernando Tatis Jr. out of the lead-off spot “when he struggles like this.”

Anyone who has asked Shildt a legitimate (and often harmless) question and gotten a flummoxed look and then a response that ranges from condescending to combative knew what was coming.

“He struggles because he had a bad game?” Shildt said incredulously. “Because I look at his numbers over the last six weeks and they’re pretty good – like a .400-plus on-base percentage.”

Asked what he thought of Tatis’ at-bats last night, when he was 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and two groundouts, Shildt did not answer directly.

“Fernando has played very well for us,” he said. “I don’t know what more to say. You can always have a knee-jerk reaction because a guy doesn’t get a hit. But I trust ‘Tati’ completely. I love the fact he leads off for us.”

I wrote Wednesday (here) about this version of Tatis — two home runs since June 24 but also a .369 on-base percentage in those 37 games — contributing to winning far more than he was from early May to mid-June. (For the record, he has a .395 on-base percentage since June 29. So Shildt was close enough.)

Questions about Tatis’ lack of slug are legitimate. He is not being paid $20 million to walk.

Questions about his batting lead-off are understandable.

But it is difficult to see where he should be moved.

Second, third, fourth, fifth?

He is batting .227 with five home runs over his past 68 games. He is batting .149 (7-for-47) with runners in scoring position in that span.

Pitchers do respect Tatis. He is not getting very many pitches to hit. But, as I noted in Wednesday’s story, he is getting some pitches that he should do damage on, and he simply is not doing damage.

Should Tatis bat lower than fifth?

The last time he batted lower than fourth was 2019.

He does create havoc when he gets on base, and taking away potentially a plate appearance a game from a guy getting on base nearly 40% of the time seems counterproductive.

Tatis can be struggling in a significant area of the game and still be the team’s best option at a certain spot.

To be sure, though, Shildt often balks at questions. And there have been times that shortly after he acts as if a question was the silliest thing he has ever heard he makes a lineup alteration or some other maneuver that essentially validates the question.

So stay tuned.

Tidbits

• The Padres walked seven times and struck out six times last night. It was the 11th game this season in which the Padres have had more walks than strikeouts. That is tied with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks for most in the major leagues.
• Jake Cronenworth was 2-for-3 and was hit by his team-leading ninth pitch. Cronenworth is 7-for-17 with two walks during a five-game hitting streak.
• Luis Arraez, who entered the game with two hits in his previous 20 at-bats, went 2-for-4 last night.
• Ryan O’Hearn was 1-for-2 and walked twice last night. He has two hits (including a home run) and two walks in past five plate appearances and is 3-for-15 with a .333 OBP in six games with the Padres.
• Jeff Sanders’ notebook (here) included thoughts from starting pitcher Michael King on his return from the injured list tonight.
• Reynolds, who already figured to be the pitcher sent down to make room for King on the active roster, allowed five runs on three hits and five walks over the final 1⅔ innings last night.
• You can get to know Padres rookie reliever David Morgan, who has had a fairly meteoric and wholly unlikely path to the major leagues, in a Q&A (here) Annie Heilbrunn did with him.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.