Padres Daily: Stuck in fifth; Merrill, as he was; Musgrove recognition

Good morning from New York,

For all the potential drama in the final two weeks of the season, there probably isn’t much left to decide for the Padres.

At least not in terms of where they are going to begin the postseason.

The Padres will almost certainly open the playoffs against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. And at this rate, it will be the only place they are participating in playoff games.

Sure, they could be playing better by October. Baseball is a cruelly and wonderfully unpredictable game. It is best digested week to week or even series to series.

And there is no greater gulf, perhaps, than the two days between the end of the regular season and the start of the postseason.

History is rife with examples of World Series champions who looked for a time late in the regular season as if they would be one-and-done in the playoffs (or might not even make it that far).

Maybe the 2025 Padres will be the next of those.

But the evidence lately is disconcerting.

My game story (here) from last night’s 8-3 loss to the Mets focused on Michael King’s struggles and what they could mean for the Padres.

It was not a good outing by a pitcher the Padres are counting on to be good.

And there are other troubling signs.

• The Padres arrived in New York having won six of their previous nine games but also six of their previous 14 games. And none of the four teams the Padres played in those 14 games has a winning record. Their last victory over a winning team was Aug. 26 at Seattle.
• The Padres have scored more than three runs in just six of their past 15 games. Two of those games were at Coors Field and another two were against the Rockies at Petco Park. (No team in the major leagues is allowing more than the 6.4 runs per game the Rockies are yielding.)
• Ramón Laureano (4-for-34, one home run, one double, three walks) and Ryan O’Hearn (3-for-31, one walk) have combined for a .108 batting average and .326 OPS over the past nine games.
• The Padres went 9-for-22 with runners in scoring position against the Rockies over the weekend and 8-for-17 against them on Sept. 7 at Coors Field. In their other nine games since Sept. 2, the Padres are batting .153 with runners in scoring position.

Again, the Padres can pull out of this.

They can do it in a big way. They have done it before.

They won five straight against the Dodgers and Giants and five straight against the Giants and Red Sox last month. They went 19-7 from July 26 through Aug. 23.

Should they find the groove they are capable of, this stretch will be forgotten.

Regardless, they seem destined to to earn the National League’s No.5 seed and open the postseason with a best-of-three series against the fourth-seeded Cubs in Chicago.

The easiest path to not playing on the road to start the postseason is to pass the Dodgers and win the NL West. The Dodgers are certainly willing to give the Padres a chance.

But the Padres have to finish a game better than the Dodgers, who won the season series and hold the tiebreaker.

Here is what that would look like:

To get past the Cubs is even more unlikely. If the Cubs win six of their remaining 11 games, the Padres would have to go 11-0 to even have a chance of earning the four seed and home playoff series that would come with it. (The teams split their season series, and the second tiebreaker of intradivison record is yet to be decided.)

For the Padres to be passed by the Mets is equally as unlikely. Even if the Mets win the next two nights, the Padres will likely hold the tiebreaker — unless the Mets sweep their remaining six NL East games (against the Marlins and Nationals) and the Padres are swept at the end of the season by the Diamondbacks. If we assume the Padres earn the tiebreaker, here is what it would take for the Mets to finish ahead of the Padres:

Obviously, it is even more difficult for one of the teams on the outside looking in at the playoff picture to catch the Padres.

With last night’s results, the earliest the Padres can clinch a playoff spot is Saturday night.

For that to happen:

Action!

One thing is trending in the right direction for the Padres.

Jackson Merrill is Jackson Merrill again.

“Looks like he’s settling into being who he is,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said last night. “That’s a really good player. And good for Jackson, good for us.”

Merrill homered last night for the third straight game and the fifth time in nine games. And his ninth-inning double gave him 10 extra-base hits in those nine games.

It was actually more than a month ago that Merrill began taking better at-bats and timing up balls more consistently. He traces his feeling “like myself” to the series against the Red Sox from Aug. 8 to 10. He was 0-for-10 in those three games but went 6-for-14 with two doubles and a home run in the three games in San Francisco that followed and was 2-for-4 with a double in the series opener against the Dodgers on Aug. 15.

It was while breaking out of the box on a ninth-inning single in that game that Merrill rolled his ankle. He stayed in that game, started the next two games but was pulled midway through the second one and did not play again until Sept. 1.

After returning from his third stint on the injured list, Merrill went 0-for-13 in his first four starts.

He is batting .333/.366/.897 in 10 games (41 plate appearances) since.

Multiple people in the organization have opined that a portion of Merrill’s struggles in 2025 owe in part to his missing a month with a hamstring strain early in the season and another week while concussed in June and then the final two weeks of August. The IL stints, those people reason, have interrupted any chance at rhythm and made it challenging for Merrill to sustain adjustments he has made.

“I’m not going to make that excuse,” Merrill said. “I’m capable enough of getting hurt, coming back and playing the same as I have. You just have to lock it in. So I’m glad I’m back to where I am.”

Merrill, who hit .292 with an 826 OPS in his rookie year, almost undoubtedly will not reach those numbers this season.

He does still have a chance to help affect a result he cherishes more.

“We have a good opportunity to do some fun things,” Merrill said. “I could care less about my stats. I just want us to win.”

Bogaerts update

Xander Bogaerts did running drills, hit against pitchers and took grounders at shortstop the past two days in Arizona, where he is preparing to come back as soon as this weekend’s series against the White Sox.

Padres manager Mike Shildt said Bogaerts ran at 80 to 85% intensity and is “still working through it.”

Shildt said Bogaerts, who suffered a fracture in his left foot when he fouled a ball off the foot on Aug. 27,  is scheduled to work on the field again today.

Rotation equation

Jeff Sanders wrote (here) on the off-day about the rotation alteration, and now I would like to discuss the rotation situation for the duration.

Here is how it lines up the rest of the way if the Padres were to stay on turn:

The only fathomable scenario in which they stay on turn is one in which they are fighting to get into the playoffs on the last weekend.

Otherwise, that final off day on Sept. 25 gives the Padres a chance to switch up the order and line up their starting pitchers for the wild-card series that begins two days after the regular season finale.

They could also make a change earlier, perhaps by plugging in Nestor Cortes for a start in the middle of next week, should they clinch a playoff spot before that.

When the Padres move around their starters’ scheduled days off could depend on how close they are to overtaking the Dodgers.

Nick Pivetta is the only choice to start the postseason opener. A healthy King had seemed like the presumptive starter for Game 2. The questions would seem to be whether that will still be the case by next week and whether they want Yu Darvish or Dylan Cease (or maybe even Randy Vásquez) to start the Game 3 if it is necessary.

Cortes on call

Cortes threw a bullpen session yesterday and is scheduled to pitch to hitters on Friday, likely at the team’s facility in Arizona.

“The next week, it’s going to help determine a lot of things not only for myself but for the organization,” Cortes said. “… I’m here to help (in) whatever aspect I can.”

Cortes likely would be asked to go three or four innings as a starter or a bulk reliever in a game next week when the Padres have clarity on where they will end up in the standings.

The left-hander was placed on the injured list Sept. 5, two days after allowing the Orioles six runs (all of them on four homers) in 2⅓ innings. It turned out he had been pitching for more than a week through pain that was diagnosed as biceps tendinitis.

“I was just trying to give my best,” Cortes said. “Ever since I got here, I felt like the first few were pretty good and then the last two just couldn’t hold it anymore and had to say something. I couldn’t go out there and give three innings to these guys. They deserve better. … I tried to see if I got over the hump, but it just didn’t get better throughout the starts. I felt like I couldn’t keep that performance going.

Musgrove recognized

Joe Musgrove knew he was not going to play baseball this season.

He still had two big goals.

The first was to attack his recovery from Tommy John surgery with every bit of the focus and passion with which he prepared throughout a normal season.

The second was to get more involved in the community.

Musgrove could be rewarded for his hard work rehabilitating his right elbow by securing a spot in the Padres’ bullpen in the postseason.

“I’m definitely still hoping,” he said.

And he has been recognized for his work in the community by being named the Padres’ nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award for a second time in his five seasons with the club.

“Definitely proud of it,” Musgrove said.

Each team nominates one player for the Roberto Clemente Award, which is given annually to the player deemed to best embody the game through sportsmanship, community involvement, philanthropy and contributions on and off the field.

Musgrove was also the Padres’ nominee in 2021.

The native San Diegan has long been involved with the Challenged Athletes Foundation and recently partnered with the Padres to fund a playground at the Armed Services YMCA.

This year, without being fettered by a start every five days or so, he also volunteered for more of the myriad community events the team conducts. He estimated there were, in fact, not too many he didn’t sign up for.

“It’s one of the things that I talked about with people in my inner circle and some of the people in the organization about the time away from the field and doing the most with it and trying to utilize it the right way,” Musgrove said. “So I really made more of an effort to get out in the community. During the season, it’s tough for some of these guys to get to the events. So I kind of took that upon myself to try to be more of a representative of the team and take some of the pressure off the pressure off the guys that are trying to play on a daily basis.”

Musgrove’s top priority through the recovery process following his elbow reconstruction in October was to get ready for 2026. But he and the team have decided he will continue working with the idea he might be able to pitch out of the bullpen in the postseason

Musgrove did his first “up-down” yesterday at Citi Field. The plan was for him to throw 15 pitches, rest and then throw another 15 pitches or so to simulate pitching multiple innings.

He will not be ready for the wild-card series, and it might even take the Padres advancing to the National League Championship Series for him to be up for the intensity of a live game and to be assured he could recover quickly enough between times he was needed.

“There are a lot of things going against me,” Musgrove said. “… It’s going to be a matter of us going far enough and me getting sharp enough.”

Tidbits

• The Sept. 25 concert by La Adictiva and the solo artist known as Candelita has been canceled because the popular Mexican band had visa issues that could not be resolved. Candelita will continue to appear at Petco Park through September and perhaps into October. (Candelita’s given name is Jose Iglesias, and his day job is being an infielder for the Padres.)
• Some rest seems to be doing Freddy Fermin good. He is batting .308 (8-for-26) with a .795 OPS over his past eight starts. That dates back to Sept. 6, which followed his getting three days off. Elias Díaz, who had only caught Pivetta for more than four turns through the rotation, caught the Padres’ two games in that span, which sandwiched an off day. Díaz also caught for Dylan Cease this past Saturday. Fermin was batting .137 (5-for-34) with a .459 OPS in his 12 starts preceding this stretch.
• Luis Arraez struck out last night for the fourth time in six games. It is not close to a career high, but it is a rare stretch for the man who has struck out less often in his career (since 2019) than any other player in the major leagues. Arraez has struck out six times in 53 plate appearances in September after striking out 15 times in his first 578 plate appearances this season.
• Arraez was 1-for-4 last night and is batting .400 (8-for-20) during a five-game hitting streak.
• The Padres hit three home runs last night for the sixth time in their past 25 games. They had just six games with three or more home runs in their first 126 games. They are 8-3 when hitting at least that many homers. Their 11 such games are tied for third fewest in the major leagues. The other teams with 11 or fewer games with at least three homers are the White Sox (11), Marlins (11), Rockies (10) and Pirates (six).
• Jake Cronenworth’s home run last night, his first in 51 at-bats, extended his on-base streak to six games. His .764 OPS has him on pace for his highest mark since his .800 OPS in 2021.
• Kyle Hart retired all six batters he faced after replacing King in the fourth inning. After posting a 6.66 ERA in six starts, Hart has 3.14 ERA in 14⅓ innings (nine appearances) out of the bullpen.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.