Who will make case Newsom was bad for state? Dems who hope to replace him

On Nov. 15, Politico published a nearly 3,000-word analysis headlined, “Admit it. Gavin Newsom is the 2028 front-runner.” Reporter Jonathan Martin made the case that Newsom’s successful attempt to depict himself as the leader of the Donald Trump opposition hadn’t just endeared him to rank-and-file Democrats. His effective social media mockery of Trump and his successful championing of Proposition 50 had made influential pundits and party insiders rethink their old view of the handsome, glib former San Francisco mayor — that he was all hat and no cattle. Instead they believed he might be able to credibly run as a truth-telling outsider, a coveted spot in Democratic presidential politics that paid off for Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

But zero words were devoted to Newsom’s actual record governing the nation’s largest state for nearly seven years, and that is by far his biggest liability. During that span, California has made little or no progress on the cost of living, housing and homelessness while remaining the most impoverished state in the nation.

On crime, Newsom supported policies that led to a retail theft explosion and prompted voters in every county in the state to vote for a crackdown in November 2024 — an initiative enacted despite the governor’s sharp criticism.

On the state’s wildly overbudget bullet train project — which was supposed to have been completed in 2020 but is still many years away from carrying its first passenger — he has embraced the biggest public works boondoggle in U.S. history despite criticizing it sharply while lieutenant governor.

Worst of all, his inept stewardship of state finances will hang over California for many years to come. In crafting the 2022-23 budget, Newsom looked at a huge boom in revenue and expected it to be permanent, predicting that the state was on track for a $98 billion surplus.

It was a rookie mistake. As his predecessor, Jerry Brown, always emphasized, revenue is extremely volatile in California because of the state’s dependence on capital gains taxes. Thinking the pandemic recovery boom on Wall Street would never stop was an unforced error.

Newsom’s prediction fueled a surge in state spending — even as revenue declined — that has now left the state facing yearly “structural deficits” from $18 billion to $35 billion, according to the budget analysis released Nov. 19 by the Legislative Analyst’s Office. Both budget cuts and big tax hikes seem inevitable.

And who will be spotlighting these severe problems as Newsom ramps up his 2028 presidential campaign? Not just Fox News hosts. It will be a half-dozen of California’s highest-profile Democrats — the ones running to replace Newsom as governor next year.

Two of them — former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Orange County House member Katie Porter — have already depicted California as a state that’s indifferent to the struggles of low- and middle-income families. Pollsters expect this to be the central issue of the 2026 governor’s race. And even if Democratic candidates never mention Newsom when they bring it up, it is a potent indictment of his record running the Golden State that will be a key talking point of rival Democratic presidential candidates in 2028.

The good news for Newsom is that one of those rivals — Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker — has a similar record of fiscal mismanagement and declining quality of life to defend. The bad news, however, is that arguably the most prominent of this group — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — does not. A poll released last month showed that his constituents are more than twice as likely to give him a positive assessment than a negative one. He can look into the camera with a straight face and say, “I am a darn good governor.” It’s hard to imagine many Californians saying that about Gavin Newsom.